February 8: Temperature Tug-of-War, Daily Links

WEATHER

Get ready for another round of weather whiplash, beginning with a steep north-to-south temperature gradient across the Midstate today — temperatures will reach the low 60s in Nashville, but locations along the TN/AL state line will be near 70° while southern Kentucky hovers around 50°:
wednesday-highs
That temperature contrast will help spark another chance of showers and thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon, continuing into this evening.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows that the best chance of rain will be east of I-65:
hrrr_2017020812_ref_nashville
A few storms could be strong, with damaging winds and hail.  The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather, and they’ve even included our easternmost counties in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5):
paul-severe-risk-region
That means that a few storms could briefly reach severe limits, but it’s not likely.  I really think the Slight Risk is a bit much, especially since the SPC’s own forecast model only shows a 20-30% chance of storms with some severe weather characteristics:
sref_prob_combined_supercell__f015
Substantially colder air will catch up to the last of the showers, producing a little bit of snow in eastern Middle Tennessee late tonight:
rpm-12a-thu rpm-3a-thu rpm-6a-thu
Accumulations aren’t likely, since the ground will be wet and warm.

Colder weather settles in Thursday, with highs only around 40°, then we’ll warm up again as we head into the weekend:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am
Despite the warm temperatures, it doesn’t look like the weather will be all that great for outdoor activities — Saturday will be breezy with some spotty light showers.

Sunday will bring us a better chance of showers and storms late in the day — the front that sparks those storms will usher in near-normal temperatures for the first half of next week:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
Another chance of rain will sneak up from the south on Tuesday — the path of that type of system is typically a snow-maker this time of year, but it just doesn’t look like there will be any cold air in place to allow for wintry precipitation.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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