February 7: Severe Storm Threat, Daily Links

WEATHER

Widespread thunderstorms will move across the Midstate this morning into early this afternoon, bringing frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and the threat for damaging winds and hail.  The strongest storms will occur from late morning into early afternoon — the HRRR model’s radar simulation has a pretty good handle on that:
hrrr_2017020711_ref_nashville
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe weather that includes the entire Midstate:
paul-severe-risk-region
Basically, that means that there will be a lot of storms, but only a few of those storms will be capable of triggering a severe thunderstorm warning.  “Severe” has a very specific definition — 60+mph straight-line winds or 1+” diameter hail are the only criteria.  (The frequency of lightning or the intensity of rainfall have nothing to do with whether a storm is categorized is severe.)  Of those severe criteria, damaging winds will be the main hazard today:
paul-severe-risk-graph
Large hail and localized flooding are certainly possible as well.  The tornado threat isn’t zero, but it will remain quite low.

Temperatures will be warm despite the rain, remaining in the low to mid 60s, briefly hitting the upper 60s for an official high temperature:
paul-daypart-graph

Mild temperatures will stick around Wednesday, with another chance of showers and non-severe storms late in the day.  The RPM model shows the showers:
rpm-3p-wed rpm-6p-wed rpm-9p-wed

Highs Wednesday will reach the mid 60s, then a 36-hour cold snap settles in late Wednesday night through early Friday morning:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1

The weekend looks warm but unsettled…spotty showers Saturday might interfere with your attempts to get out and enjoy the warm weather, but the better chance of rain will move in late Sunday.  No big rush of cold air behind that system, so next week will start off cooler but still above-average:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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