A 4WARN Weather Alert has been issued for Tuesday for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms. There is a warm moist air mass in place.  Add to that a strong low level jet and the ingredients come together for some potentially strong storms.  It’s not a “for sure” event this go around, but the timing is concerning, so we want to make sure folks are aware as they head out the door. The Storm Prediction Center has put much as Middle Tennessee in a Slight Risk zone for severe storms.  That is second on a 1 to 5 scale.


Here’s the latest timing on Futurecast. As you can see the storms develop before sunrise in the west and move eastward hitting just in time for rush hour. They’ll likely be in Nashville between 6am to 9am.

The most likely issue will be from damaging wind, hail and heavy downpours that could trigger flooding.  These are all moderate risk on the threat scale.  The probability of tornadoes is low.  Just a reminder severe thunderstorm warnings are issued when winds reach 58 mph or greater or the hail is one inch in diameter or larger.

paul-severe-risk-graphAfter the morning round of thunderstorms, more scattered showers and thundershowers are possible, but the worst of the weather will be in the morning. It will be warm and windy outside of the stormy weather with a high near 67.

Wednesday will be showery, but I’m not expecting strong thunderstorms. The temperatures will continue to be well above average. Thursday is a different story as a front passes by and cold air spills in behind it. There could even be a winter mix on the Plateau as the moisture exits and the cold air arrives.

Friday the warm air moves right back in for the beginning of a mild weekend.


I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.