February 2: Cooler Temps, Daily Links

WEATHER

It’s Groundhog Day, the holiday when we pretend that rodents are fifth-dimensional creatures with knowledge of the past, present AND future.  Punxatawney Phil saw his shadow (despite overcast skies in Pennsylvania), Chattanooga Chuck did not see his shadow.  So winter will either continue…or not.
shrug

Showers in southern Middle Tennessee have pretty much dissipated already this morning, leaving us with cool and breezy conditions the rest of the day.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows a few showers trying to run along the TN/AL border later today:
hrrr_2017020213_ref_nashville

High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 40s, which is just slightly below average for early February:
thursday-highs
You can expect to see more sunshine in southern Kentucky, with the clouds remaining stubborn in southern Middle Tennessee…and Metro Nashville stuck in between, along with the rest of the I-40 corridor.

Chilly tonight, with lows dropping below freezing, then we’ll only hit the low 40s for highs on Friday.  A flat-out COLD start Saturday morning, then temperatures start warming up over the weekend, topping out near 50° by Saturday afternoon, and in the mid 50s Sunday:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1

Saturday night brings us some light rain showers — it’s not an impressive rain chance, but temperatures do look warm enough to prevent any icy/snowy shenanigans.  Here’s the BAMS model’s radar simulation…which is probably overdone a bit, but at least gives us an idea of the rainiest scenario (i.e. not very rainy!):
bams-9p-thu bams-12a-sun bams-3a-sun bams-6a-sun

Once the warmer temperatures arrive, they’ll stick around for a couple of days.  Monday and Tuesday both look unsettled, with a pretty good chance of rain both days.  Tuesday even looks warm enough to allow for the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
At this point, I don’t think a significant severe weather threat will shape up around here — but it’s pretty far out there in the extended forecast, so we’ll watch it carefully.  After Tuesday’s rain chance moves through, colder temperatures settle in again for the back half of the work week.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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