We just wrapped up the 5th-warmest January on record in Nashville — combine that with a slightly-above-average December and it’s been the 14th-warmest December/January since record-keeping began in the 1870s. If we just experience normal temperatures in February, this will still go into the books as Nashville’s 20th-warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Jan-Feb). But, we’ve now had 12 straight months of above-average temperatures, and the Climate Prediction Center’s newest outlook calls for a pretty decent chance of an above-normal February in this part of the country:
Those twelve straight months of above-average temperatures in Nashville ties a record. Courtesy of loyal commenter and fellow weather-nerd Fred, the most consecutive warmer-than-average months in Nashville:
12: May 1881 – April 1882
12: February 2016 – January 2017 (in progress)
11: May 2007 – March 2008
10: May 1998 – February 1999
9: November 2011 – July 2012
After near-record highs for the last day of January, we do have cooler temperatures in store to at least start the month of February, with highs reaching the mid 50s in Nashville under increasingly cloudy skies:
A temperature boundary will be in place directly over the Midstate, so it will be substantially cooler in Southern Kentucky, and substantially warmer in southern Middle Tennessee. The presence of that boundary also means that this is a very touchy temperature forecast — just a little ten-mile wobble could rearrange temperatures drastically.
I think we’ll stay dry during the day Saturday, before a better chance of rain moves in Saturday night…that will usher in warmer air to start next week:
Another system will give us a decent chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday. 24 hours ago, I was a bit concerned about Tuesday’s severe weather potential — but the latest output from the European forecast model has eased my concerns for the moment. It’s still the tail end of the extended forecast, so we’ll keep you updated.
- More perspective on the warm-February forecast and the difference between “seasonal” forecast models and day-to-day weather models.
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