February 1: Cooler Start to February, Daily Links

WEATHER

We just wrapped up the 5th-warmest January on record in Nashville — combine that with a slightly-above-average December and it’s been the 14th-warmest December/January since record-keeping began in the 1870s.  If we just experience normal temperatures in February, this will still go into the books as Nashville’s 20th-warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Jan-Feb).  But, we’ve now had 12 straight months of above-average temperatures, and the Climate Prediction Center’s newest outlook calls for a pretty decent chance of an above-normal February in this part of the country:

Those twelve straight months of above-average temperatures in Nashville ties a record.  Courtesy of loyal commenter and fellow weather-nerd Fred, the most consecutive warmer-than-average months in Nashville:
12: May 1881 – April 1882
12: February 2016 – January 2017 (in progress)
11: May 2007 – March 2008
10: May 1998 – February 1999
9: November 2011 – July 2012

On top of that, out of the last 17 months, starting with September 2015, 16 have been warmer than average.

After near-record highs for the last day of January, we do have cooler temperatures in store to at least start the month of February, with highs reaching the mid 50s in Nashville under increasingly cloudy skies:

A temperature boundary will be in place directly over the Midstate, so it will be substantially cooler in Southern Kentucky, and substantially warmer in southern Middle Tennessee.  The presence of that boundary also means that this is a very touchy temperature forecast — just a little ten-mile wobble could rearrange temperatures drastically.

We’ll see a chance of showers south of I-40 by late this afternoon and this evening — the HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the pattern, and how light the showers will be:

Cooler weather settles in for the rest of the week, with highs in the 40s through Saturday:

I think we’ll stay dry during the day Saturday, before a better chance of rain moves in Saturday night…that will usher in warmer air to start next week:

Another system will give us a decent chance of rain Monday night into Tuesday.  24 hours ago, I was a bit concerned about Tuesday’s severe weather potential — but the latest output from the European forecast model has eased my concerns for the moment.  It’s still the tail end of the extended forecast, so we’ll keep you updated.

 

LINKS

• More perspective on the warm-February forecast and the difference between “seasonal” forecast models and day-to-day weather models.
• Still seven weeks (more or less) to go in winter around here, but Australia is right in the middle of summertime.
• An improvement in “carbon capture” technology is needed to slow global climate change, a new study says.
• Using heat from the Sun to keep us cool — how solar-thermal air-conditioning could be the next big thing.
• MRIs before and after space missions reveal that astronauts’ brains compress and expand during spaceflight, according to a new study.
• New measurements of “ghost particles” could improve physicists’ understanding of the Universe as a whole.
• Do dark matter and dark energy affect ordinary atoms?
• Relics of a long-lost continent may lurk beneath the Indian Ocean.
• The Arizona Geological Survey is monitoring a 2-mile long crack that has opened up in the Arizona desert.
• Researchers are one step closer to figuring out the exact composition of Earth’s core.
• The rise of artificial intelligence will force data scientists to evolve or get left behind.
• How to activate your brain’s ability to learn.
• How do the cells in your body communicate with each other?
• The evolution of the treadmill: A machine that used to be considered punishment is now a $3.5 billion fitness industry.
• Speaking of running…the longest running streak on record ended over the weekend at 19,032 days.
• How thinking like a scientist can improve your daily life.