January 20: Warm & Wet Weekend

WEATHER

Temperatures warmed up to near-record territory today…and more importantly, we finally saw some sunshine!
ebv2l

More warmth in store over the weekend, but with more rain headed our way as well.  The first batch of rain looks like it will mostly miss us to the south, early in the day Saturday.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows some showers trying to sneak into Nashville, but the best chance of rain farther to the southeast:
hrrr_2017012022_ref_nashville
Other forecast models keep Nashville completely dry, so I’m not going to get carried away with rain chances along I-40.

Temperatures tonight will drop to the mid 50s…
saturday-lows
…then we’ll warm up to the upper 60s Saturday afternoon:
saturday-highs

A better chance of rain will move into the entire Midstate late Saturday night and Sunday.  Switching to the RPM’s radar simulation, it depicts a line of strong storms weakening as it moves south-to-north into the Midstate in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning:
rpm-2a-sun rpm-4a-sun rpm-6a-sun
The severe weather threat this weekend will mostly stay down to our south, but the Storm Prediction Center has included much of the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe storms, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) clipping our southern counties:
paul-severe-risk-region
The severe weather threat will last most of the weekend in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, but around here it should be confined to that late-Saturday-night time frame.

Rain will continue off-and-on throughout the day Sunday:
rpm-9a-sun rpm-12p-sun rpm-3p-sun
Temperatures Sunday will still reach the low 60s in between the showers.  Cooler weather moves in to start next week, but we’ll still be above-average, with highs in the low 50s Monday and the upper 50s Tuesday:
wsmv-4-plus-4-pm

The pattern flip-flop I wrote about yesterday is still looking likely by late next week.  A cold front will spark some spotty showers on Wednesday — once that front moves through, temperatures will dive back to near-normal or even below-average levels:
wsmv-4-plus-4-pm-2

The nerd-links will be back on Monday…inauguration coverage dominated all of my usual science-news sources today!

 

Advertisements

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to January 20: Warm & Wet Weekend

  1. Fred says:

    Cloudy streak finally over at 10. Last ten days were all cloudy to overcast. Not a record but the longest such streak since 11 last seen from Nov 30 – Dec 10, 2014. The longest spell of cloudy weather on record is 17 which ran from Valentine’s Day through March 2, 2003.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s