More warmth in store over the weekend, but with more rain headed our way as well. The first batch of rain looks like it will mostly miss us to the south, early in the day Saturday. The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows some showers trying to sneak into Nashville, but the best chance of rain farther to the southeast:
Other forecast models keep Nashville completely dry, so I’m not going to get carried away with rain chances along I-40.
A better chance of rain will move into the entire Midstate late Saturday night and Sunday. Switching to the RPM’s radar simulation, it depicts a line of strong storms weakening as it moves south-to-north into the Midstate in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning:
The severe weather threat this weekend will mostly stay down to our south, but the Storm Prediction Center has included much of the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe storms, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) clipping our southern counties:
The severe weather threat will last most of the weekend in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, but around here it should be confined to that late-Saturday-night time frame.
Rain will continue off-and-on throughout the day Sunday:
Temperatures Sunday will still reach the low 60s in between the showers. Cooler weather moves in to start next week, but we’ll still be above-average, with highs in the low 50s Monday and the upper 50s Tuesday:
The pattern flip-flop I wrote about yesterday is still looking likely by late next week. A cold front will spark some spotty showers on Wednesday — once that front moves through, temperatures will dive back to near-normal or even below-average levels:
The nerd-links will be back on Monday…inauguration coverage dominated all of my usual science-news sources today!