January 18: Sun? Maybe??? And the Daily Links

WEATHER

Dry weather will prevail for one day, with some partial clearing today even allowing some sun to sneak through, especially by this afternoon!  That’s always a tenuous forecast to make this time of year, with such a low sun angle, but I’m optimistic today.  Temperatures will be cooler than the past couple of days, but still well above-average, reaching the mid 50s this afternoon:
wednesday-highs

The dry weather is temporary though, with the next chance of rain heading our way late tonight and throughout the day Thursday.  The best chance of showers early Thursday will be west of I-65, with the heavier rain spreading across the Midstate Thursday afternoon and evening.  The RPM model’s radar simulation shows that pattern pretty well:
rpm-6a-thu rpm-9a-thu rpm-12p-thu rpm-3p-thu rpm-6p-thu rpm-9p-thu rpm-12a-fri
You might even hear some rumbles of thunder, but severe weather is unlikely.  Total rainfall amounts will be in the 1″-2″ range for most of us — significant rain that will continue to ease the drought conditions, but not enough to cause flooding problems.
paul-rpm-4km-precip-accum

The showers will linger into early Friday, then we’ll dry out by Friday afternoon.  Back to the 60s for high temperatures the rest of the work week and over the weekend, with additional rain chances both Saturday and Sunday:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am
I had to bump up that Saturday rain chance just a little bit — it’s looking more likely that some moisture will sneak up into at least the southern half of the Midstate.  Even with cooler temperatures next week, we’ll still be above-normal for the foreseeable future.

More unusual than the above-normal temperature pattern is the extended period of above-freezing temperatures.  With temperatures forecast to remain above 32° through at least the middle of next week, that would be 19 days (out of 25, as of Wednesday) above freezing in January.  The January record in Nashville is 26 days above freezing, set back in 1880.  So as weirdly warm as the past couple of weeks have been, we can’t break that record this year, even if we stay above freezing the entire rest of the month!

 

LINKS

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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1 Response to January 18: Sun? Maybe??? And the Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    Last 8 days were 3rd warmest on record for the time of the year: http://www.sercc.com/climper/ClimPerList.php?station=BNAthr&mode=ClimPer&date=2017-01-17&count=8_DAY. Also, present forecasts indicate we could make a run at another remarkable record but it’s still too early for a definite statement.

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