January 16: Warm MLK Day, Rain Ahead, Daily Links

WEATHER

Widespread reduced visibility prompted a Dense Fog Advisory this morning, but the fog is dissipating as I type this, thanks to winds picking up from the south.  Those southerly winds will also push temperatures up to around 70° this afternoon:
monday-highs
That’s just a few degrees shy of today’s record high of 74° (set in 1943).

Rain will stay to our west today, then showers and a few non-severe storms will move in late this evening and overnight.  The rain will linger much of Tuesday morning, moving off to the east Tuesday afternoon.  The RPM model’s radar simulation shows the rain gradually making its way through the Midstate:
rpm-8p-mon rpm-10p-mon rpm-12a-tue rpm-3a-tue rpm-6a-tue rpm-9a-tue rpm-12p-tue
You could hear a few rumbles of thunder, but I don’t expect any significant severe weather threat to develop.  There’s an outside chance for a storm or two to produce gusty winds, but when I say “outside chance,” I mean:
justabitoutside

Warm weather will continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with more rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday, then again by Sunday and Monday:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2

The warm weather won’t last forever…even though it does feel like it, this IS still winter after all.  The Climate Prediction Center’s (experimental) 3-4 week temperature outlook shows a decent chance of below-average temperatures in the southeastern United States in late January and early February:
wk34temp
That map just shows the odds of above- or below-normal temperatures…it doesn’t indicate the magnitude of the change (i.e. how hot or how cold).  Just enjoy the warm air while it sticks around this week, and we’ll keep an eye on the long-range trends.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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