Widespread showers this morning will gradually lift to the north — the HRRR model’s radar simulation has had a good handle on things so far, and it shows a much drier pattern by this afternoon and this evening:
Once we dry out, it will still be warm, and it will still be breezy…but the winds won’t be quite as strong as they were yesterday! Temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid 60s:
We won’t drop much overnight, starting off Thursday morning around 60°
…then warming up to near 70° Thursday afternoon! Thursday’s record high is 75° (set all the way back in 1890) — I think that record is safe, but we’ll give it a run.
Another chance of rain moves in Thursday evening and overnight — the best chance will initially shape up north of I-40, but everyone has a decent rain chance later in the night, as the RPM model’s radar simulation shows here:
The warm and unsettled weather pattern will continue into early next week. The driest day in the forecast is Sunday — that looks like your best chance to get out and enjoy the warm weather without getting wet:
The rain chance on Monday (MLK Day) looks like it will shape up later in the day, but that’s still pretty far down the line at this point. Tuesday’s thunderstorm chances are also pretty far down the line, but we’ll keep an eye on that for you.
I don’t write/talk much about the really long-range forecast (beyond 7 days), because those forecasts are pretty tenuous…but the Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook in the 8-14 day range shows a significant chance of above-average temperatures across most of the country:
To clarify, the darkest red on that map doesn’t indicate the warmest air — it indicates the region has the best chance (statistically speaking) of experiencing above-average temperatures. Still, it looks like the majority of the rest of January will be on the warm side.
- The weather in the western United States is an absolute MESS.
- This is a fascinating look at avalanches, and the crews that work to rescue people when they happen.
- While temperatures around here will be 10-20 degrees above average for at least the next week, bitterly cold weather in Europe has resulted in dozens of fatalities.
- A little pre-inauguration nerdery — the average high in Washington DC on January 20 is 43 degrees…but most inaugurations have been colder than that. (Reagan’s second even had to be moved indoors!)
- Yes, winter is still cold…but it’s the fastest-warming season in the United States.
- I link to climate-change content frequently in this space, but I also like to occasionally establish that I am NOT a “gloom and doom” scientists when it comes to the topic…as outlined in this article, mitigating and reversing the effects of climate change represents a tremendous business opportunity (in addition to being, you know, the right thing to do).
- This will be my reading material for the foreseeable future: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information has released individual summaries of observed and predicted climate changes for all 50 states.
- If it was possible to walk through space, could you walk to the moon in a lifetime?
- The leading country in the potential industry of asteroid-mining isn’t the United States, or China, or Russia…or any country you would expect, for that matter.
- A star that appears both young and old may look that way because it “ate” a Jupiter-sized planet.
- Hot water freezes clearer than cold water (try it!), but under certain conditions it also freezes faster. And we don’t quite know why yet.
- It’s gross, but I know you’ve wondered about this whenever you have a cold: what’s the point of mucus?
- Your dog remembers even more about you than you think.