January 11: Wet And Warm For A While, Daily Links

WEATHER

Widespread showers this morning will gradually lift to the north — the HRRR model’s radar simulation has had a good handle on things so far, and it shows a much drier pattern by this afternoon and this evening:
hrrr_2017011112_ref_nashville
Once we dry out, it will still be warm, and it will still be breezy…but the winds won’t be quite as strong as they were yesterday!  Temperatures this afternoon will reach the mid 60s:
wednesday-highs

We won’t drop much overnight, starting off Thursday morning around 60°
thursday-lows
…then warming up to near 70° Thursday afternoon!  Thursday’s record high is 75° (set all the way back in 1890) — I think that record is safe, but we’ll give it a run.

Another chance of rain moves in Thursday evening and overnight — the best chance will initially shape up north of I-40, but everyone has a decent rain chance later in the night, as the RPM model’s radar simulation shows here:
rpm-6p-thu rpm-9p-thu rpm-12a-fri rpm-3a-fri prm-6a-fri

Thursday night’s rain will linger into early Friday, and will usher in cooler weather…for ONE day.  The warm air will return from the south on Saturday, squeezing out some more showers as it moves in:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am

The warm and unsettled weather pattern will continue into early next week.  The driest day in the forecast is Sunday — that looks like your best chance to get out and enjoy the warm weather without getting wet:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
The rain chance on Monday (MLK Day) looks like it will shape up later in the day, but that’s still pretty far down the line at this point.  Tuesday’s thunderstorm chances are also pretty far down the line, but we’ll keep an eye on that for you.

I don’t write/talk much about the really long-range forecast (beyond 7 days), because those forecasts are pretty tenuous…but the Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook in the 8-14 day range shows a significant chance of above-average temperatures across most of the country:
814temp-new
To clarify, the darkest red on that map doesn’t indicate the warmest air — it indicates the region has the best chance (statistically speaking) of experiencing above-average temperatures.  Still, it looks like the majority of the rest of January will be on the warm side.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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