December 23: Wet Then Warm for Christmas Weekend

WEATHER

Mostly cloudy skies will prevail today, but temperatures will still warm up to the upper 50s thanks to stronger winds from the south:
friday-highs

We’ll be dry most of the day, but showers will approach us from the west this evening, as the HRRR model’s radar simulation shows:
hrrr_2016122311_ref_nashville

Rain is likely overnight and through most of the day on Saturday…the RPM model’s version of Futurecast has a pretty good handle on that:
rpm-9p-fri rpm-12a-sat rpm-3a-sat rpm-6a-sat rpm-9a-sat rpm-12p-sat rpm-3p-sat
The good news is that temperatures will stay near 50° overnight, putting us in the “Goldilocks zone” — warm enough to prevent any icy precipitation, and cool enough to prevent any severe weather threat.

The showers will taper off Saturday night, leaving us with just an isolated shower chance early Christmas morning:
rpm-6p-sat rpm-10p-sat rpm-2a-sun rpm-6a-sun

Warm and windy conditions for Christmas itself, with highs close to 70°!  Right now I’m forecasting a high of 69°, but if we hit 70° that would put us in the top 5 for “warmest Christmas on record” in Nashville:
dt_warmestchristmas
We’ll top out close to 70° again Monday, before a good chance of showers and a few storms moves in Monday evening and overnight…once again, no severe weather expected:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am
Yet another rain chance moves in Wednesday and Thursday…the long-range models are still a bit muddled on that one, but it does look like a significant shot of colder air will move in after that system.  I’m not going crazy with HOW cold Friday’s temperatures will be, but that’s the last day of the “4-plus-4-cast,” so stay tuned for updates:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am

Have a Merry Christmas!

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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