December 22: Christmas Weather, Daily Links

WEATHER

Colder air is moving in from the northwest this morning — we were at 53° at 2am, but down to 41° by 7am.  We’ll recover somewhat, but temperatures won’t be as mild as they were yesterday.  Afternoon highs will reach the upper 40s under partly cloudy skies:
thursday-highs
Still not bad for the first full day of winter!

We’ll drop back to the upper 20s tonight, just after midnight, but clouds will move in after that, allowing temperatures to slowly rise by the time you’re heading out the door early Friday morning:
friday-morning

The clouds will continue to thicken throughout the day Friday, but temperatures will still hit the mid 50s thanks to southerly winds:
friday-afternoon

Tomorrow is a busy travel day, since a lot of folks will take to the sky (hopefully in airplanes) and hit the roads before Christmas weekend…the one national trouble spot looks like the Upper Midwest.  In particular, snow could affect flights through O’Hare and Midway airports in Chicago:
travel-friday
Rain is also likely along the West Coast, from Portland down to San Francisco.

A good chance of rain moves into the Midstate Friday night and sticks around Christmas Eve.  The latest Futurecast simulation shows the heaviest rain falling late Friday night:
rpm-7p-fri rpm-11p-fri rpm-3a-sat rpm-7a-sat rpm-11a-sat rpm-3p-sat rpm-7p-sat
However, there are other forecast models that show heavier rain sticking around later into the day Saturday…keep that in mind if you’re planning some road travel on Christmas Eve, and we’ll keep you updated with the latest timing estimates over the next couple of days.

A warm and breezy Christmas Day in store for us, with highs close to 70°…the second year in a row we’ll be within shouting distance of Nashville’s warmest-Christmas record of 73°:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1
We won’t be alone in the warm weather pattern Christmas Day — most of the southeastern U.S. will have unusually warm temperatures as well:
xmas-warmth
The really active weather for Christmas will shape up through the middle of the country.  Severe thunderstorms are looking increasingly likely in (where else?) eastern Oklahoma:
xmas-storms
Rainy weather will push as far to the north as Minneapolis and Chicago, which pushes the chance of significant snow on Christmas Day up into North Dakota, northern Minnesota, southern Manitoba and western Ontario:
xmas-snow

Back here, we’ll see another unseasonably warm day Monday, before a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms moves in late Monday and Monday night…at this point, severe weather looks unlikely, but we’ll keep an eye on it just in case:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
Yet another good chance of rain heads our way Wednesday, helping us chip away at the drought conditions that are still prevalent across the Midstate.  The latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor (released this morning) shows moderate drought conditions across most of the Midstate, with severe drought still over the southern half of the Cumberland Plateau:
20161220_tn_trd

 

LINKS

Last batch of nerd-links for 2016!  Tomorrow is a holiday for a lot of folks, so the flow of news will likely be light…and after I work Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (write emails to my bosses to praise my dedication!), I’ll be off through Jan 4th.  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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