December 19: Calmer Weather, Daily Links

WEATHER

What a wild ride this weekend…from severe thunderstorms to sleet and freezing rain, from the low 70s Saturday evening to the 20s most of the day Sunday.  Nashville actually set a record for largest one-hour temperature drop (from 73 degrees at 11:12pm Saturday, to 42 just after midnight).  The temperature dropped a whopping 52 degrees overall — from that high of 73 Saturday evening, to 21 by 3:15pm Sunday.  (Thanks to loyal commenter and fellow weather nerd Fred for crunching the numbers!)

If you’re wondering whether that temperature drop sets any kind of national record…no.  Not even close, really.  Way back in 1911, an exceptionally strong cold front moved through the middle of the country, with remarkable results in Oklahoma — the front lowered temperatures as much as 69 degrees in 18 hours (and 50 to 65 degrees in 2 to 3 hours!).  Oklahoma City’s record temperatures on November 11 (max=83, min=17) both are from 1911, as is the record low for November 12 (14 degrees).

It’s very cold out there this morning, and we won’t see too much of a warm-up today, with highs only reaching the low to mid 30s this afternoon:
monday-highs
Wind chills we remain stuck in the 20s for most of us:
monday-wind-chill

The good news is we should see partial clearing later today, but that will allow temperatures to drop back to the upper teens by early Tuesday morning:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1
More of a warm-up in store Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 40s Tuesday, and the low to mid 50s Wednesday.  A very slight shower chance heads our way late Wednesday night and early Thursday, but I think most of us will just see clouds overhead, without much actually falling from those clouds.

Christmas weekend is now within range of the extended forecast — I’m confident saying we’ll be in a warmer-than-average and showery weather pattern, but there’s still significant uncertainty regarding the specifics of the holiday weekend’s weather.  The most-reliable forecast data points to better rain chances Saturday and Monday, with a break from the best shower chances on Christmas itself (Sunday):
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
There’s some model data that disagrees with that assessment though, so check back with us throughout the week for revisions to the forecast as things come into better focus.

At this point, I feel very comfortable saying it will NOT be a white Christmas in the Midstate.  Before you boo that news, keep in mind — it’s great news for folks who are traveling!  Statistically speaking, our odds of a white Christmas are less than 10% in any given year anyway:
paul-white-xmas-3
If you want a white Christmas, head north — this is the European forecast model’s estimate of snow depth on Christmas morning:ecmwf_snowdepth_conus2_27

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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2 Responses to December 19: Calmer Weather, Daily Links

  1. Tom Nichol says:

    Personally, I think anybody who would forecast a White Xmas for Nashville in ANY given year is absitively, posolutely downright FLAKY!! 3:)

  2. Fred says:

    I’ll keep crunchin’ and munchin’ on ’em, I promise:-))!
    Regarding White Xmases, well, considering Nashville had those back-to-back just once (1992-1993) and since then there has only been one White Xmas (2010), you’re right, Mr. Nichol. Toughest call for a Nashville forecaster, no doubt.

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