December 13: Temperature Roller-Coaster, Daily Links

WEATHER

Get ready for some weather whiplash over the next several days — the temperature roller-coaster has plenty of ups and downs in store for us!  But for today, there won’t be much of a curve to the temperature pattern…cloudy skies and cool temperatures will stick around this afternoon, after this morning’s cold rain showers move off to the east:
paul-daypart-graph
The HRRR model doesn’t keep the rain around past midday:
hrrr_2016121312_ref_nashville

The cold air really kicks in the rest of the week.  Clouds tonight will keep temperatures from falling TOO far…
wednesday-lows
…but highs Wednesday will only reach the low 40s:
wednesday-highs
We’ll drop to the low 20s for low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings, with highs on Thursday only topping out around freezing:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1
Check out the forecast wind chills for Thursday morning!
thursday-wind-chill

We’ll warm up enough Friday for rain showers Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night.  The most-widespread and heaviest rain looks like it will fall late Saturday night, with another significant shot of cold air crashing in right as the rain ends.  Temperatures will drop from the mid 60s Saturday evening to around 40 degrees before sunrise Sunday:
weekend-temps

That timing and strength of the cold wave brings in the possibility of some snow mixing in with the last of the rain…but notice the phrasing: possibility, NOT “probability” or “likelihood.”  As I’m typing these words, the potential changeover is 120 hours away — that’s WAY too far down to the line to have much confidence in the hour-by-hour specifics. What usually happens around here is that the moisture moves off to the east before the cold air has a chance to catch up.  We’ll be able to get into more specifics as the weekend gets closer.  If you’re a snow-lover, don’t get your hopes up…if you’re a snow-hater, don’t despair.

However, I am confident that the cold air will stick around for a few days…Sunday looks like an “upside-down” day, with high temperatures occurring early in the morning, followed by steadily dropping temperatures the rest of the day:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
I’m leaving slight mixed-shower chances in the forecast Monday and Tuesday, but that’s also a “low-confidence” portion of the forecast — we’ll get a better handle on that once the weekend picture comes into better focus.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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