December 9: Cold, Then Rain, Then Cold

WEATHER

Clear and cold weather in store for us tonight, as temperatures drop to the teens across the Midstate by early Saturday morning:
saturday-lows

Lots of sunshine again on Saturday, with slightly warmer temperatures — we’ll reach the low 40s in the afternoon, but that’s still close to 10° below average:
saturday-highs

Sunday will bring us increasing clouds and very breezy conditions, but the wind will be out of the south, which will help warm us up to the low to mid 50s.  Kickoff of the Titans-Broncos game should be dry, but layer up against that wind:
titans

A good chance of rain is on the way late Sunday, but the showers should hold off until well after sunset.  The latest Futurecast radar simulation looks pretty reasonable — it shows the heaviest rain late Sunday night and into the very early hours of Monday morning, with the rain moving off to the east by midday Monday:
rpm-8p-sun rpm-12a-mon rpm-4a-mon rpm-8a-mon rpm-12p-mon

The extended forecast is…well, a mess.  Another significant shot of Arctic air is going to drop into the middle of the country by the middle of next week:
cold-next-week
But there are still significant questions surrounding the specific timing of the cold air’s arrival, how far to the south the cold air will travel, how long the cold air will linger, AND whether there will be any significant moisture in the atmosphere to produce rain or snow showers…or something in between.  I’ve tilted my forecast toward the long-range European model’s scenario — cold, but not insanely cold, with limited shower chances Tuesday through Thursday:
wsmv-4-plus-4-pm
That same forecast model is pointing toward a chance of ice changing to rain late Friday into early Saturday…that’s a loooooooooooooooong way off, so don’t panic, or adjust travel plans, or do anything other than pay attention to the forecast as things evolve next week.

 

LINKS

 

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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