December 5: More Rain, Daily Links

WEATHER

We’ll spend at least the first half of the day in a break from the rain, but cloudy skies will stick around, keeping temperatures cool. Highs today will only reach up to around 50°:
monday-highs

Another good chance of rain moves into southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon, and across the rest of the Midstate this evening and tonight.  Still some differences in the short-range model data regarding specific timing…the RPM model holds off the bulk of the rain until later in the evening:
rpm-12p-mon rpm-2p-mon rpm-4p-mon rpm-6p-mon rpm-8p-mon rpm-10p-mon
While the HRRR model brings it in a bit faster:
hrrr_2016120512_ref_nashville
Even with those timing discrepancies, you can be confident that the farther south you go, the earlier the rain will arrive…and the heaviest rain will fall tonight and into early Tuesday morning:
rpm-12a-tue rpm-2a-tue rpm-4a-tue rpm-6a-tue
You could hear a few rumbles of thunder in that time frame, but the severe weather threat will stay down to our south this time around.  (Yet again, a scenario where there’s a ton of wind energy over the Midstate, but almost zero instability.)  Total forecast rainfall amounts range from around a half-inch to the west of I-65, to a narrow band of 1.5″+ in southeastern Middle Tennessee:
paul-rpm-12km-precip-accum

The rain should be mostly off to our east by midday Tuesday:
rpm-8a-tue rpm-10a-tue rpm-12p-tue
Once again the clouds will be tough to shake, but temperatures Tuesday should still hover in the low to mid 50s:
tuesday-highs

Another chance of showers heads our way Wednesday night into early Thursday, but that’s looking less and less impressive with every new batch of model data that comes in.  I’m just going with “slight chance” percentages at this point, and even that might be a stretch:
wsmv-7-day-am
The bigger story in the 7-day forecast is the genuine cold snap that heads our way by the end of the work week.  Highs Friday will barely climb above freezing despite abundant sunshine, and lows Friday and Saturday morning will drop down to around 20°!  Cold, yes…but nowhere close to record territory.  Friday morning’s record low is 0° and Saturday’s is 1°.  Temperatures will warm up enough for just cold rain to fall on Sunday — you might have to deal with that if you’re heading to the Titans-Broncos game at noon.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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