It’s one of the busiest travel days of the year, and we have a good chance of rain moving in from the west. Just isolated showers west of I-65 for the first half of the day, then widespread showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms will move in by late afternoon, continuing through the first half tonight. The HRRR model’s radar simulation looks like it has a good handle on things overall:
Total rainfall won’t be a drought-buster, but we’ll take it! Less than a half-inch of rain across the Midstate, with less than a quarter-inch for most locations:
Our rainfall deficit is still significant — so while the timing of the rain certainly isn’t ideal, I’m not going to complain about it.
If you’re traveling nationally (or if you have family coming in from out of town), here’s a look at which parts of the country are most likely to experience weather-related delays:
Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, Portland and Seattle are some of the larger hubs where delays could have a trickle-down effect elsewhere.
Spotty showers still possible east of I-65 to start the day on Thanksgiving, otherwise we’ll see morning clouds giving way to some peeks of afternoon sunshine. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s:
Dry weather Friday, Saturday, and during the day Sunday, before another good chance of rain arrives Sunday night and continues into early next week:
Both the European forecast model…
…and the American GFS model…
…are depicting a good chance of “significant” rain (more than one inch). There’s likely to be a lot of wind energy in the atmosphere, but very little thermodynamic energy (“storm fuel”) — we’ll keep a close eye on the severe weather potential, but it’s not something that’s going to keep me up at night.
Last batch of nerd-links for this abbreviated work week…we’ll still be on the air tomorrow morning from 4am-7am.
- It won’t impact the U.S., but Hurricane Otto is moving westward in the Caribbean, and has already caused three fatalities. Via tropical researcher Philip Klotzbach: Otto is the latest hurricane (in the calendar year) in the western Caribbean on record (dating back to 1851), breaking the old record set by Martha in 1969.
- U.S. snow cover has improved from a record low 0.2 percent one week ago to 16.2 percent as of yesterday.
- Proof you can always learn more, because I’d never heard of this before: an outbreak of “thunderstorm asthma” in Australia.
- An earthquake rattled the Fukushima district of Japan on Monday — it was actually an aftershock from the 9.0 magnitude quake back in 2011.
- An ice deposit on Mars holds as much water as Lake Superior.
- When the first humans go on a trip to Mars, their food needs to not weigh much, taste good and have lots of nutrition. Which is hard to accomplish.
- A new rocket engine design breaks a law of physics. But a NASA test says it works anyway. File this under “we’ll see.”
- Data from the New Horizons probe has allowed researchers to figure out what lies beneath Pluto’s icy surface.
- Visiting family (or getting visits from family) is a big part of the holiday season…but that’s a significant source of stress as well.
- With that in mind, here are seven totally safe science discussion topics for Thanksgiving dinner.
- And here are nine tips for communicating science to people who are not scientists.