November 23: Rainy Travel, Daily Links

WEATHER

It’s one of the busiest travel days of the year, and we have a good chance of rain moving in from the west.  Just isolated showers west of I-65 for the first half of the day, then widespread showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms will move in by late afternoon, continuing through the first half tonight.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation looks like it has a good handle on things overall:
hrrr_2016112312_ref_nashville

Total rainfall won’t be a drought-buster, but we’ll take it!  Less than a half-inch of rain  across the Midstate, with less than a quarter-inch for most locations:
paul-rpm-12km-precip-accum
Our rainfall deficit is still significant — so while the timing of the rain certainly isn’t ideal, I’m not going to complain about it.
paul-precip-almanac

Temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s before the rain moves in today…except to the west and northwest of Nashville, where the earlier rain chances will keep you in the 50s:
wednesday-highs

If you’re traveling nationally (or if you have family coming in from out of town), here’s a look at which parts of the country are most likely to experience weather-related delays:
travel
Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, Portland and Seattle are some of the larger hubs where delays could have a trickle-down effect elsewhere.

Spotty showers still possible east of I-65 to start the day on Thanksgiving, otherwise we’ll see morning clouds giving way to some peeks of afternoon sunshine.  High temperatures will reach the upper 50s:
2015_thanksgivingenglish

Dry weather Friday, Saturday, and during the day Sunday, before another good chance of rain arrives Sunday night and continues into early next week:
wsmv-7-day-am
Both the European forecast model…
ecmwf_apcp_f168_us
…and the American GFS model…
gfs_op_apcp_f162_us
…are depicting a good chance of “significant” rain (more than one inch).  There’s likely to be a lot of wind energy in the atmosphere, but very little thermodynamic energy (“storm fuel”) — we’ll keep a close eye on the severe weather potential, but it’s not something that’s going to keep me up at night.

 

LINKS

Last batch of nerd-links for this abbreviated work week…we’ll still be on the air tomorrow morning from 4am-7am.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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