November 22: Rainy Travel, Daily Links

WEATHER

We started the day on a chilly note once again:
tuesday-lows

But temperatures will warm up significantly today, as southeasterly winds bring milder air into the Midstate.  Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 50s and low 60s despite increasing clouds overhead:
tuesday-highs

Any travel plans over the next 24 hours are looking good from a local perspective, but you could run into trouble in the middle of the country.  Parts of Texas are under the gun for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening:
tx-storms
And the Upper Midwest is looking at another chance of significant snow:
midwest-snow

Back to our local weather: a good chance of rain arrives from the west on Wednesday — it will likely slow down road travel, but I’m optimistic that it shouldn’t have too much of an impact on flights leaving Nashville.  Futurecast (the RPM model has been the most consistent) shows a few showers west of I-65 in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning…
rpm-1a-wed rpm-4a-wed rpm-7a-wed
…then another round of rain moving in by midday:
rpm-10a-wed rpm-1p-wed
That rain will diminish in intensity as it encounters the dry air over the Midstate, but we’ll still get off-and-on showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening, and into much of Wednesday night:
rpm-4p-wed rpm-7p-wed rpm-10p-wed rpm-1a-thu rpm-4a-thu
Rainfall amounts won’t be drought-busting, ranging from just around a tenth of an inch in southeastern Middle Tennessee, to around a half-inch to the west and north of Nashville:
paul-precip-almanac
We’ll take what we can get!

Other travel hubs will have a greater potential for weather-related travel delays tomorrow — Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland will be dealing with wind and rain, but at least the snow with that storm system will stay a little farther north of those cities.  A different storm system will likely cause some delays in Portland and Seattle as well:
travel

If you’re just traveling around the region on Thursday, you might run into an early-morning shower to the east of I-65…but skies will clear from west to east on Thanksgiving, with high temperatures near 60°.  More calm weather in store Friday, Saturday, and during the day Sunday, before another good chance of rain arrives Sunday night and Monday:
wsmv-7-day-am
The long-range forecast models are still working to get a handle on that next storm system, but it looks like the best chance of significant rain (>1″) we’ve seen in quite some time!  The National Weather Service office in Nashville tweeted this map today, so obviously they’re thinking right along the same lines:
cx3hwp7ukaaeh3z-jpg-large
That rain could also come along with at least some severe weather potential, but it’s way too early to worry about that.  We’ll keep an eye on it!

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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