November 18: Record Warmth, RAIN, Daily Links

WEATHER

One more day of record warmth, with high temperatures reaching the low 80s this afternoon.  Today’s record is 80° (set in 1985), and that record looks likely to fall:
paul-daypart-graph

A good chance of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the west this evening and tonight, and that will bring an end to our late-autumn heat wave.  No severe weather expected, just some very welcome rain across the Midstate.  The RPM model shows rain approaching from the west after sunset, but not moving into Nashville until about 10pm.  The rain will wind down along the Cumberland Plateau by early Saturday morning:
rpm-7p-fri rpm-9p-fri rpm-11p-fri rpm-1a-sat rpm-3a-sat rpm-5a-sat
The HRRR model is similar — it shows the first wave of rain dissipating as it encounters the very dry air over the Midstate…but then subsequent bands of rain will actually reach the ground (this model only looks 18 hours into the future, so the data runs out at midnight).
hrrr_2016111812_ref_nashville
If you’re heading to high school football games this evening, here’s my rain gear advice:
paul-rain-gear
Total rainfall amounts won’t be sufficient to bust the drought, but we’ll take it!
paul-rpm-12km-precip-accum

Cooler and breezy this weekend, with highs in the lower half of the 50s, and overnight lows just below freezing…for the first time this fall!  (At least, for the official temperature in Nashville).
wsmv-7-day-am
Another chance of rain heads our way Tuesday night and Wednesday…once again, it won’t be substantial…but once again, we’ll take whatever Mother Nature wants to offer up.  Thanksgiving Day looks great at this point!

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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One Response to November 18: Record Warmth, RAIN, Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    …A couple more bite the dust: yes, more records, yet again. What is it, for the last month records have been falling like leaves. This November already tied the record for the most days in the 80s for any months of its name, – 4. Previously, only November 1987 held that distinction. We broke another record, this time for the most days in a year with temps of 70 and above. Counting today which peaked at 79, 2016 has so far amassed 225 such days. The top five looks like this:
    1. 2016 225 days (so far)
    2. 2007 223
    3. 1946 222
    4. 2015 221
    5. 2012 & 1938 220 apiece.
    If you’re curious, the year with the least days t>= 70 is 1875 with 174.
    Another fact, which I’m sure everyone’s enjoying is the unusual number of days with sunshine this fall. If September and October are expected to be sunny, November, generally, is not. There’s a relevant article: https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/november-december-cloudiest-month-of-year. Here’re the averages for the fall months in Nashville:
    September 11 clear days 9 partly cloudy days 10 cloudy days
    October 13 8 10
    November 9 7 14
    Well, according to the official database, our last cloudy day happened a month ago, on October 20. In fact since August 21 we’ve logged only 7 cloudy days. That’s a ridiculously low number. Though, the data is not readily available, the only month (to the best of my knowledge) in Nashville not to have a single cloudy day was July 2007. If this November will manage the same it would be a most remarkable occurrence.

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