November 14: Rain Late This Week, Daily Links

WEATHER

Temperatures will warm up quickly from our chilly start this morning, reaching the mid to upper 60s this afternoon:
monday-highs

There won’t be as much wildfire smoke in the atmosphere overhead today, as winds shift to the southwest…but an Air Quality Alert is still in effect until midnight:
paul-air-quality

Increasing clouds tonight, with a very slight shower chance early Tuesday morning, but no more than a trace of rainfall is expected.  The RPM model’s radar simulation just shows some sprinkles — no need to dig out the umbrella:
rpm-4a-tue rpm-6a-tue rpm-8a-tue rpm-10a-tue

Warm temperatures will prevail throughout the week, even reaching close to record territory Thursday and Friday.
paul-heat-wave

A better rain chance finally moves into the Midstate late Friday!  I’m not going any higher than 50% for our rain chances at this point, because it’s still pretty far down the line from a forecasting perspective — the European forecast model is pretty impressed with our chances of picking up some much-needed rainfall:
ecmwf_apcp_f126_us
But the American GFS model isn’t as optimistic (and is also about 12 hours slower):
gfs_op_apcp_f132_us
Time will tell, but I’m cautiously optimistic about this one.  I’ve tilted my forecast heavily toward the European model’s solution, but even the best forecast models are far from perfect.

Once the rain moves through, we’ll see decreasing clouds on Saturday, and lots of sunshine Sunday.  Temperatures will be significantly cooler, but pretty close to average mid-November readings:
wsmv-7-day-am

Notice what’s missing from the 7-day forecast — any temperatures of 32 degrees or lower.  The last time the low temperature in Nashville was at or below freezing was March 5…today was the 254th straight day of above-freezing low temperatures:
paul-heat-wave-2
We’re likely to break that record, but I’m not convinced that we’ll threaten the record for “latest first freeze.”  The latest we’ve gone in autumn without hitting freezing was in 2009, when we finally dropped to freezing on November 27.  It’s quite possible that we’ll wake up to sub-freezing temperatures early next week (just beyond the range of this morning’s 7-day forecast) — we’ll keep you updated.

 

LINKS

Lots of extraterrestrial stuff in the nerd-links today, for some reason…plenty of other stuff too!

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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