Increasing clouds tonight, with a very slight shower chance early Tuesday morning, but no more than a trace of rainfall is expected. The RPM model’s radar simulation just shows some sprinkles — no need to dig out the umbrella:
A better rain chance finally moves into the Midstate late Friday! I’m not going any higher than 50% for our rain chances at this point, because it’s still pretty far down the line from a forecasting perspective — the European forecast model is pretty impressed with our chances of picking up some much-needed rainfall:
But the American GFS model isn’t as optimistic (and is also about 12 hours slower):
Time will tell, but I’m cautiously optimistic about this one. I’ve tilted my forecast heavily toward the European model’s solution, but even the best forecast models are far from perfect.
Notice what’s missing from the 7-day forecast — any temperatures of 32 degrees or lower. The last time the low temperature in Nashville was at or below freezing was March 5…today was the 254th straight day of above-freezing low temperatures:
We’re likely to break that record, but I’m not convinced that we’ll threaten the record for “latest first freeze.” The latest we’ve gone in autumn without hitting freezing was in 2009, when we finally dropped to freezing on November 27. It’s quite possible that we’ll wake up to sub-freezing temperatures early next week (just beyond the range of this morning’s 7-day forecast) — we’ll keep you updated.
Lots of extraterrestrial stuff in the nerd-links today, for some reason…plenty of other stuff too!
- Satellite measurements of cloud-to-ground lightning patterns could be used to improve short- and medium-range forecasts.
- Exception drought just to the south and southeast of the Midstate could be exacerbated by this winter’s La Nina event.
- A climate lawsuit filed against President Obama will move forward, a judged has ruled, creating a legal battle for President-elect Trump (and it would have moved forward if Clinton had won as well).
- A look at what the President-elect can and cannot do when it comes to climate policy.
- A new study found that plants have increased the rate at which they consume carbon dioxide.
- Physicists have figured out a new way to study the core of the Sun.
- Will space policy be a real part of the President-elect’s first term?
- Using today’s tech, we could create a functioning colony on the Moon — and the cost really isn’t prohibitive.
- A new study attempted to adjust the famous “Drake equation” — the results assert that Earth is not the first intelligent civilization in the history of the Universe. (Still no actual evidence for that, of course.)
- Australia has joined the hunt for aliens with a huge dish telescope.
- What’s the best evidence for life elsewhere in the Universe?
- Dogs may wag their tails in different directions to communicate.