November 1: More Record Warmth, Daily Links

WEATHER

First, a look back at October.  The average temperature of 67.7° was 7.4° above normal, ranking it as the 4th-warmest on record (according to data from NOAA’s Regional Climate Centers).  We only picked up 0.43″ of rain, which ranks as the 10th-driest October on record in Nashville.  Furthermore, the average temperature for September and October combined was 71.9° — that’s the 2nd-warmest September-October time period on record, behind only 1941.  (That year brought below-average temperatures in November, but data from one year is the very definition of “small sample size.”  I plotted ALL Sept-Oct temperatures versus the subsequent November temperatures, and there’s virtually zero correlation — for you statistics nerds, the r-squared value is less than 0.01.)

ALSO…and this deserves its own paragraph and some bold/italic/underline treatment…the first ten months of 2016 are the warmest such ten months on record in Nashville (dating back to 1875).  The average temperature for January through October this year has been 65.5° — the next-warmest first ten months of the year was in 2012, at 65.3°.
giphy

More record warmth in store for us to start the month of November, with temperatures today reaching the mid to upper 80s, and highs Wednesday still reaching the low to mid 80s.  This autumn heat wave is a result of the jet stream (the main “storm track” for North America) being pushed WAY up to the north, along the US-Canada border:
big-picture
That position allows a large area of high pressure to establish itself and become entrenched — high pressure means sinking air overhead (“subsidence” is the technical term).  Sinking air warms up, and it also suppresses our rain chances.

Today’s high of 87° will break the daily record of 85° (set in 1935) and will set an all-time November record for Nashville:
tuesday-highs

Another record is likely to fall Wednesday — 83° is the record (set in 1982) and we should beat that by a degree or two:
wednesday-highs

The heat wave will come to an end on Thursday with a chance of rain showers.  Futurecast’s radar simulation looks impressive, but the models are likely underestimating how dry soil conditions are right now — that means the humidity will remain low, which will eat away at this rain as it moves into the Midstate:
rpm-12p-thu rpm-3p-thu rpm-6p-thu
I don’t expect much in the way of measurable rain, just enough to settle the dust.

Temperatures will still be above average this weekend, but “only” 5 to 10 degrees above normal, instead of 15 to 20 degrees.
wsmv-7-day-am

 

LINKS

A short list of nerd-links today, since I spent most of my time this morning crunching the climate numbers…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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3 Responses to November 1: More Record Warmth, Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    Some more record stats: since May 24, we’ve had only 12 (!) days out of 161 with below average daily mean temps. It’s ,unsurprisingly, the warmest such period on record: http://www.sercc.com/climper/ClimPerList.php?station=BNAthr&mode=ClimPer&date=2016-10-31&count=161_DAY. Also, September 2015 through October 2016 is by far the warmest such 14 month period ever observed in Nashville: http://www.sercc.com/climper/ClimPerList.php?station=BNAthr&mode=ClimPer&date=2016-10-31&count=427_DAY. Over that span only January was colder than average and even that by less than half a degree. Now, if the climate change would rank higher on the agenda in the presidential election, Al Gore could go unshaven for a couple of years and still crush the competition))!

  2. Fred says:

    I’m trying, Paul! A correction is in order, though. The number of below-average days since May 24 should be 14: 4 in June, none in July (the only July with no days below average), 4 in August, 4 (see the pattern?) in September and just 2 in October (Oct. 1 is currently listed at -1, but it will probably be changed to 0, as it’s a small value, within margin of deviation). Still, just a couple of weeks of combined below-normal days over 5+ months is a miserably low number. More stats: last month is the third October on record to have its mean daily max temperature to break the 80 degree mark, tied with 10/1947 at 80.5 and behind only 10/1963 which averaged at 81.4. It was also the fourth October to have the total number of days with daily highs of 80 and above to reach 20 days, tied with 10/1973, behind 10/1947 (21) and the all-time record-holder October 1963 (26), aka “The month with no rain”. Speaking of the 80s, we’ve already had 2 such days to start the month of November, with tomorrow likely adding another day. The record for the most days in the 80’s for November is 4, set in 1987, so we’re getting close . The totals for the year in that category currently stand at 166 days, behind only 2007 which had 171.
    Finally, there’s a really neat site, https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/, that can generate lots of climate-related graphs. Even though a good bit of the data is available only for the Midwest states, they still offer just about anything you would want to know about the weather/climate of your place.

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