October 19: One More Hot Day, Daily Links

WEATHER

One more day of near-record warmth today, then changes arrive for the end of the work week and the weekend.  High temperatures today will reach the upper 80s, putting us just short of the record high temperature of 89°:
wednesday-highs

Once again, we’re far from alone in the heat wave — high temperatures will be near record territory across much of the southeastern U.S.:
wednesday-region

There’s a slight chance of an isolated shower northwest of Nashville, but I wouldn’t bother with the umbrella yet today.  There’s a much better chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire Midstate on Thursday.  We’ll start the morning with scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder:
rpm-6a-thu rpm-9a-thu
Stronger storms are likely to develop around midday in western Middle Tennessee, tracking west-to-east throughout the afternoon and into the evening:
rpm-12p-thu rpm-3p-thu rpm-6p-thu rpm-9p-thu rpm-12a-fri
Some of the afternoon thunderstorms could prompt severe thunderstorm warnings, with damaging wind (60+mph gusts) and hail (1″+ diameter) the main threats.  The Storm Prediction Center’s short-range ensemble model (SREF) is estimating a 10-20% chance of severe weather ingredients coming together Thursday afternoon:
sref_prob_combined_supercell__f042
The “analog” forecasts, which compare tomorrow’s forecast pattern to similar historical patterns, also estimate a 10-20% severe weather chance:
prallc10_nam212f048
Those numbers are low, but they’re not zero…accordingly, SPC has outlined the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms:
paul-severe-risk-region
In basic terms, that means a severe weather outbreak isn’t likely, but a few storms could approach severe limits.  Plan on staying weather-aware, just in case — we’ll keep you posted!

Cooler and breezy Friday, with temperatures remaining much closer to normal over the weekend…before we warm up again early next week:
wsmv-7-day-am

 

LINKS

Lots of weather nerdery today…plus some other stuff.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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