One more day of near-record warmth today, then changes arrive for the end of the work week and the weekend. High temperatures today will reach the upper 80s, putting us just short of the record high temperature of 89°:
There’s a slight chance of an isolated shower northwest of Nashville, but I wouldn’t bother with the umbrella yet today. There’s a much better chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire Midstate on Thursday. We’ll start the morning with scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder:
Stronger storms are likely to develop around midday in western Middle Tennessee, tracking west-to-east throughout the afternoon and into the evening:
Some of the afternoon thunderstorms could prompt severe thunderstorm warnings, with damaging wind (60+mph gusts) and hail (1″+ diameter) the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center’s short-range ensemble model (SREF) is estimating a 10-20% chance of severe weather ingredients coming together Thursday afternoon:
The “analog” forecasts, which compare tomorrow’s forecast pattern to similar historical patterns, also estimate a 10-20% severe weather chance:
Those numbers are low, but they’re not zero…accordingly, SPC has outlined the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms:
In basic terms, that means a severe weather outbreak isn’t likely, but a few storms could approach severe limits. Plan on staying weather-aware, just in case — we’ll keep you posted!
Lots of weather nerdery today…plus some other stuff.
- Elsewhere in the world, a super-typhoon is about to make landfall in the Philippines.
- Total clickbait here, but it’s worth it — check out some of the entries from the Weather Photographer Of The Year competition.
- Cooling Pacific ocean temperatures from La Niña will likely lead to a pause in record global temps…but the overall warming trend continues.
- Hurricane Matthew caused millions of dollars worth of damage to one of Florida’s cruise ports.
- Greenland’s ice pack is melting 7% faster than originally thought — doesn’t sound like much, but that’s not good.
- It’s hard to see through the thick clouds of Venus, but it looks like the planet is still volcanically active.
- Some of the things we’ve learned about the rings of Saturn, thanks to NASA’s Cassini spacecraft.
- Astronomers are finding more and more members of our solar system, WAY out there beyond Pluto’s orbit.
- Various scientific studies have identified the ways that travel changes your brain.
- By 2055, there will be two billion additional people on the planet…which raises some potential challenges.
- Chemically speaking, what happens to the things we forget?
- Some people associate migraines with certain foods, but it may not be the food itself that acts as the trigger.
- A poll of millenial voters found that about 1 in 4 preferred “giant meteor” to their choices on the ballot this fall.