October 17: Record Warmth!


We’ve got a genuine mid-October heat wave in store the next few days, with record high temperatures likely today and tomorrow, and near-record highs Wednesday.  Partly cloudy skies today, with gusty southerly winds helping to push temperatures up to the mid to upper 80s:

Near 90° for highs tomorrow and Wednesday, which is WAY out of the ordinary for this time of year:
If we do manage to hit 90°, it will be the latest 90° high on record in Nashville — currently the record is October 10, 1980.

We’re not alone in the unusually warm weather pattern — the jet stream has been pushed way up to the north, which allows the warm air to surge up into the eastern two-thirds of the country:
Record high temperatures are likely to fall in many locations today…
…and yet again tomorrow:

A good chance of showers and thunderstorms moves in Thursday — we’re pretty confident in the overall rain chance, but the specific timing is still up in the air.  The BAMS model is the only version of Futurecast that looks ahead more than 72 hours — it shows the best chance of storms later in the day:
bams-1p-thu bams-4p-thu bams-7p-thu
At this point, I’m not concerned about our severe weather potential.  I think there will be enough instability to produce some rumbles of thunder, but not enough to enhance the severe weather threat to any significant level.

The front that causes those storms will bring temperatures back to near normal Friday through the weekend…in fact, the weekend looks fantastic!

No nerd-links today — as soon as I hit “publish” on this, I’m heading out to shoot our annual Snowbird commercials.  Yes…I’m getting paid to work with puppets.
[Jon Lovitz voice]: ACTING!

The links will be back tomorrow!


About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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