October 5: Warm Weather, Tracking Matthew, Daily Links

WEATHER

Calm and warm conditions will prevail through the rest of the week, with partly cloudy skies overhead.  Temperatures will warm up to the mid to upper 80s this afternoon:
wednesday-highs

Just a very slight chance of a shower late Friday into Saturday, otherwise the forecast is looking dry through most of next week.  Temperatures will still reach the mid to upper 80s tomorrow and Friday, dropping back to the mid 70s over the weekend:
wsmv-7-day-am
It will be a little breezy over the weekend, as the atmosphere gets squeezed by Hurricane Matthew’s path along the southeastern coast of the U.S.

Other than the breezy weekend, Hurricane Matthew will not have a direct impact on the Midstate — but it’s likely to have a big impact along the Atlantic coast from Florida northward to North Carolina through the weekend.  As of this morning, Matthew is a Category Three hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds, centered just north of the eastern tip of Cuba:
paul-satellite-tropical
Matthew’s interaction with Haiti and Cuba over the last 36 hours has disrupted the storm’s organization, but now that it’s moving back over open water it will re-intensify.  Water temperatures around the Bahamas are bathtub-warm:
ssts
The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast path shows Matthew as a Category Four hurricane again within the next 24 hours, with that strength remaining consistent as it approaches the east coast of Florida:
paul-tropical-forecast-1
The official forecast path keeps the center of circulation just offshore, but the “cone of uncertainty” surrounding the forecast path still allows for the possibility that Matthew will make landfall.
paul-tropical-forecast-2
Even if the center of Matthew stays offshore, the Florida coast is still going to see significant effects because of heavy rain, storm surge, gusty winds and coastal erosion.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the southern coast of Florida, with Hurricane Warnings from West Palm Beach northward — those transition to Hurricane Watches along the northern half of Florida’s east coast:
watches-warnings
Looking past the 72-hour forecast, the uncertainty increases exponentially — the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center widens significantly:
paul-tropical-forecast-3
And the various forecast models are all over the place…the “spaghetti plot” of those models brings in possibilities that range from a continued path along the Carolina coast, to a path that loops Matthew all the way around for a second swing through the Bahamas and toward Florida next week:
paul-tropical-spaghetti
That long-range forecast will undoubtedly change — we’ll keep you posted.

 

LINKS

Some Hurricane Matthew-related reading material for you to start off the links…

And some other assorted nerdiness…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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