October 3: Warm Weather Ahead, Tracking Matthew, Daily Links

WEATHER

The cloud cover that was so stubborn over the weekend will try to stick around one more day, but we’ll see more of a mix of clouds and sunshine, which will help warm us up to the mid to upper 70s this afternoon:
monday-highs

An early-October warm spell is in store for us the rest of the week, with high temperatures in the mid 80s, and overnight lows around 60°.  The only slight chance of a shower will be Saturday, otherwise the forecast is looking dry for a while.
wsmv-7-day-am

It seems pretty appropriate that October is off to a warm start, since 2016 has been a very warm year overall.  The January through September time period was the 4th-warmest on record in Nashville, with an average temperature of 65.2° — the warmest such time period was in 2012, with an average temperature of 66°.

The big weather story this week is (and will continue to be) Hurricane Matthew — as of this morning, it’s a Category Four hurricane, with sustained winds of 130mph.
paul-satellite-tropical
The yellow-shaded area in this image shows the extent of the tropical storm force winds (39+mph), with hurricane-force winds (74+mph) in orange and major hurricane winds (120+mph) in purple:
wind-radii
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast path brings Matthew over Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba, then into the Bahamas over the next 72 hours:
paul-tropical-forecast-1
After that, the forecast “cone of uncertainty” widens out quite a bit.
paul-tropical-forecast-2
That cone is based on historical forecast errors, not on forecast model output — but the models are also showing quite a bit of variability late this week.  They agree that Matthew will stay offshore as it moves along the Atlantic coast, but some produce a closer encounter with land:
paul-tropical-spaghetti
The two major medium-range forecast models have a differing view of where Matthew will be by the weekend…the European model shows a slower progression, with Matthew lurking just off the Georgia coast.  The American GFS model indicates faster movement, but has Matthew awfully close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Saturday:
gfs-euro
We’ll keep you updated as the week progresses.

 

LINKS

Some nerdiness to start the new work week…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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