September 30: Rain Chances Diminish…Eventually

We’re wrapping up the month of September on a cool and showery note, but we will dry out and warm up as we start the month of October.  We had some heavy rain move into Nashville for the evening commute, but showers will wind down after sunset this evening, as the HRRR model’s radar simulation shows nicely:
hrrr_2016093020_ref_nashville
I’d bring a rain jacket to the high school football games (or just out and about)…not a guarantee it will rain on you, but temperatures will necessitate a jacket regardless.

Temperatures will fall to the mid 50s, with some dense fog developing by early Saturday:
saturday-lows
We’ll warm up to the low to mid 70s for highs on Saturday:
saturday-highs
Still a chance of isolated shower Saturday, mostly from midday through the afternoon:
paul-daypart-pops

More sunshine Sunday and Monday, with temperatures warming up to the upper 70s Sunday, back to around 80° Monday.  The warming trend will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, before the next chance of scattered storms arrives on Thursday:
7-day-pm

We’re also close monitoring Hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean Sea.  Matthew was a Category One hurricane just 24 hours ago, but it has undergone rapid intensification in that 24 hours — it’s now a major Category Four storm with 140mph sustained winds around the center of circulation:
paul-satellite-tropical paul-tropical
Matthew will track westward for about the next 36 hours, then turn to the north — the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast path takes it over Jamaica by midday Monday:
paul-tropical-forecast-1
The “cone of uncertainty” widens quite a bit in the 4-5 day time frame, but Cuba and the Bahamas will likely feel a hefty impact:
paul-tropical-forecast-2
The various forecast models mostly agree on a path that keeps Matthew off the east coast of the United States, as the “spaghetti plot” of the tracks shows:
paul-tropical-spaghetti
Problem is, those models are all over the place regarding the speed at which Matthew will move — the American long-range model has Matthew off the coast of North Carolina in a week, while the European forecast model still has it hanging out in the Bahamas:
paul-ecmwf-700-mb
We’ll keep you posted on the storm’s progress over the weekend and into early next week — it’s not going to have a direct impact on our weather around here, but the Atlantic coast is going to have to sweat this one out.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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