After spending so much of September baking underneath a late-summer heat wave, we’re finishing off the month in a cooler-than-normal pattern. We’ll see more clouds than sunshine the next couple of days, with cool temperatures and intermittent light rain showers. Temperatures will only warm up to the mid 60s today:
The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the scattered nature of the shower chances:
Overall, your best chance of a shower will be this afternoon, but even then it’s less than a 50-50 chance in any one particular spot:
Far from an all-day rainout, but keep an umbrella handy just in case.
The rain chances diminish as we head into the weekend — just a very slight shower chance on Saturday, then partly cloudy and warmer on Sunday.
The warming trend continues through the first half of next week…no HOT weather in sight, but well above-average by the middle of the week.
We’re also keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Matthew in the Caribbean. Matthew is unlikely to have a direct impact on our weather here in the Midstate, but we’ll still keep you updated, since the storm could have an impact along the Atlantic coast. Matthew is a strong tropical storm this morning:
The National Hurricane Center anticipates that Matthew will reach hurricane strength (74+mph sustained winds) within the next 24 hours, with further strengthening over the weekend as it tracks through the warm waters of the Caribbean:
The NHC’s extended-range outlook into early next week shows a larger “cone of uncertainty”:
The greater uncertainty is due to differing output from the various forecast models — they do agree (more or less) that Matthew will take a turn to the north, but they disagree on exactly when and where that right turn will occur. The “spaghetti plot” shows the forecast model paths for the center of Matthew’s circulation:
We’ll keep you updated through the weekend with the latest information about Matthew’s strength, impacts, and forecast path.
Last batch of nerd-links this week — I’m filling in for Lisa Spencer tonight and tomorrow…double-shifts don’t allow much time for browsing the internet for nerdy stuff! So here’s a good-sized dose of brain candy…
- An “atmospheric river” will be pointed at Washington, DC this week — they could pick up close to a foot of rain in spots.
- Hurricane Matthew’s forecast path is eerily similar to that of Hurricane Hazel in 1954.
- One of the world’s largest candy makers is hiring meteorologists to anticipate and deal with the impacts of climate change.
- The U.S. is about to get much better weather satellites.
- There’s evidence along the New Jersey coast that another comet hit the Earth 10 million years after the dinosaurs’ demise.
- This is worth revisiting, in the wake of Elon Musk’s press conference Tuesday, where he proposed colonizing Mars, beginning in the next 10 years…he also thinks we should “terraform” Mars (change its atmosphere) by setting off nuclear weapons over the Martian poles. He might be a James Bond villain.
- Our solar system lives in a major spiral arm of the Milky Way, a new study suggests…not in an offshoot as previously thought.
- The biggest solar system ever discovered is very, VERY big.
- How the history of how we measure things changes the language of physics.
- Do people who grow up in the Arctic see better in the dark?
- A guide to the changing science of flu shots.
- These are the viruses that made us the humans we are today.
- What was the most-violent era in human history? (Surprisingly, not the 20th century.)
- How your brain decides between effort and reward.
- Why are we thirsty before sleep?
- How 17th-century ruins could help unravel the secrets of Earth’s magnetic field.