September 29: Cool and Showery, Daily Links

WEATHER

After spending so much of September baking underneath a late-summer heat wave, we’re finishing off the month in a cooler-than-normal pattern.  We’ll see more clouds than sunshine the next couple of days, with cool temperatures and intermittent light rain showers.  Temperatures will only warm up to the mid 60s today:
thursday-highs
The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the scattered nature of the shower chances:
hrrr_2016092910_ref_nashville
Overall, your best chance of a shower will be this afternoon, but even then it’s less than a 50-50 chance in any one particular spot:
paul-daypart-pops
Far from an all-day rainout, but keep an umbrella handy just in case.

A very similar pattern tomorrow, but a few more cracks in the clouds will allow temperatures to climb back up to around 70° on Friday.
friday-highs

The rain chances diminish as we head into the weekend — just a very slight shower chance on Saturday, then partly cloudy and warmer on Sunday.
wsmv-7-day-am
The warming trend continues through the first half of next week…no HOT weather in sight, but well above-average by the middle of the week.

We’re also keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Matthew in the Caribbean.  Matthew is unlikely to have a direct impact on our weather here in the Midstate, but we’ll still keep you updated, since the storm could have an impact along the Atlantic coast.  Matthew is a strong tropical storm this morning:
paul-satellite-tropical
The National Hurricane Center anticipates that Matthew will reach hurricane strength (74+mph sustained winds) within the next 24 hours, with further strengthening over the weekend as it tracks through the warm waters of the Caribbean:
paul-tropical-forecast-1
The NHC’s extended-range outlook into early next week shows a larger “cone of uncertainty”:
paul-tropical-forecast-2
The greater uncertainty is due to differing output from the various forecast models — they do agree (more or less) that Matthew will take a turn to the north, but they disagree on exactly when and where that right turn will occur.  The “spaghetti plot” shows the forecast model paths for the center of Matthew’s circulation:
paul-tropical-spaghetti
We’ll keep you updated through the weekend with the latest information about Matthew’s strength, impacts, and forecast path.

 

LINKS

Last batch of nerd-links this week — I’m filling in for Lisa Spencer tonight and tomorrow…double-shifts don’t allow much time for browsing the internet for nerdy stuff!  So here’s a good-sized dose of brain candy…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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