September 28: Another Cool Burst, Daily Links

WEATHER

Yesterday’s weather was nothing short of spectacular.  Very nice weather in store for us most of today, with temperatures warming up quickly to around 80° this afternoon.
wednesday-highs
Abundant sunshine through early afternoon will give way to increasing clouds by this evening, with a chance of spotty showers around sunset, mostly north/east of I-24.  The HRRR model shows that pattern, and also shows how light the showers will be:
hrrr_2016092811_ref_nashville
Grab the umbrella just in case, but I wouldn’t count on any free lawn-watering this evening.

Another wave of cooler air settles in the next couple of days, with spotty showers still possible Thursday and Friday, and high temperatures only in the upper 60s to around 70°.  The culprit will be an upper-level storm system centered to our north — little spokes of energy will rotate around that and spark the hit-and-miss showers:
video-omni-2

The rain chances will diminish in time for most of the weekend…we’ll be quite a bit warmer next week, but at least we’ll avoid a return to flat-out HOT weather:
wsmv-7-day-am

We’re still monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the tropical Atlantic — this will likely be classified as a tropical depression within the next 24 hours, and it looks like it will rapidly reach tropical storm or even hurricane strength by the weekend:
two_atl_2d0
The next name on the list (tropical systems get a name when they reach tropical storm strength) is “Matthew.”  The spaghetti plot of various forecast models brings the strengthening storm into the Caribbean this weekend…
paul-tropical-spaghetti
…then most of the model guidance forecasts a sharp right turn, taking the storm due north over Cuba, the Bahamas, and near the east coast of the United States:
paul-tropical-spaghetti-2
That quick turn might look weird, but it matches up with the bigger picture — an area of high pressure that will be weakening, allowing potential-Matthew to make its move:
video-omni
It’s waaaaaaaaaay too soon to put much faith in forecast model guidance that’s looking 7-10 days into the future — but this one has our attention, and we’ll keep a close eye on it.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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