September 26: Autumnal Changes, Daily Links

WEATHER

Our early-autumn heat wave finally comes to an end today, as a cold front sparks showers and a few non-severe storms.  The short-range forecast models disagree on the precise timing — the RPM model shows the best chance of rain west and north of Nashville through noon, moving eastward by late afternoon:
rpm-10a-mon rpm-12p-mon rpm-2p-mon rpm-4p-mon rpm-6p-mon
The HRRR model is a couple of hours slower:
hrrr_2016092611_ref_nashville
Smoothing out the differences between the models, I expect the best chance of rain will be from late morning through mid-afternoon:
paul-daypart-pops
Even then, you’re not guaranteed to see rain in your neighborhood — the showers will be scattered, and won’t produce more than a half-inch of rain.  The heaviest rain will fall west and northwest of Nashville, with lower amounts east and southeast.

Temperatures today will reach up to around 80° before the best chance of rain arrives, then we’ll drop to the low 70s in the wake of the showers:
paul-daypart-graph

The cool, pleasant air really settled into the Midstate tonight and tomorrow.  Temperatures Tuesday will start off in the 50s…even 40s in a few spots!
tuesday-lows
And while abundant sunshine will warm things up quickly, high temperatures will top out near-normal, in the mid to upper 70s:
tuesday-highs

Cooler temperatures will settle in for the rest of the week, with highs in the 70s, and overnight lows in the 50s:
wsmv-7-day-am
I had to add a chance of showers to the Wednesday-Thursday-Friday forecast, as an upper-level disturbance will set up camp over the eastern half of the country.  It will just be spotty light shower activity, not an all-day washout.  The showers should be gone in time for the weekend — in fact, the first weekend of October looks nothing short of fantastic!

 

LINKS

Some nerdiness to start the new work-week…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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One Response to September 26: Autumnal Changes, Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    Yet another heat-streak might be ending today. This one concerns the number of consecutive days with the daily mean of 70 or above. By analogy with a daily mean of 80 and up being a good indication of a hot day in Nashville, this streak could be a measure of how many really warm days we’ve had (and during the summer months days with the mean below the 70 mark could be considered cool days). Here are the top 10 longest stretches of warm days in Nashville:
    Number of Consecutive Days Avg Temperature >= 70
    for Nashville Area, TN (ThreadEx)
    1 134 1921-05-19 through 1921-09-29
    2 125 2016-05-24 through 2016-09-25
    3 122 1939-05-23 through 1939-09-21
    4 115 1909-05-25 through 1909-09-16
    5 112 2007-05-22 through 2007-09-10
    6 110 1953-05-21 through 1953-09-07
    7 109 1973-06-01 through 1973-09-17
    8 106 2010-05-21 through 2010-09-03
    9 104 1906-06-14 through 1906-09-25
    10 103 1991-05-09 through 1991-08-19
    Period of record: 1873-12-01 to 2016-09-25
    So, today is likely to be the first relatively cool day since May 23rd. Yep, it’s been over 4 months with no real respite from the steady onslaught of really warm and hot temps. And over that span, it’s been mostly the 80’s and upper 70’s! In fact, hot days comprised 2/3 of the streak and their total number (82) ties the all-time record set in 1954.
    Years with the most hot days (Days Avg Temperature >= 80) for Nashville Area, TN (ThreadEx)
    2016 82
    1954 82
    1943 74
    1921 72
    2010 71
    1952 70
    1925 68
    1881 67
    1983, 1980 and 1913 all tied with 66.
    Let’s name 2016 the Year of Al Gore’s Revenge Pt. 2, in contrast to 2009 which was the Year of Spectacular Failure ;;;))).

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