Our early-autumn heat wave finally comes to an end today, as a cold front sparks showers and a few non-severe storms. The short-range forecast models disagree on the precise timing — the RPM model shows the best chance of rain west and north of Nashville through noon, moving eastward by late afternoon:
The HRRR model is a couple of hours slower:
Smoothing out the differences between the models, I expect the best chance of rain will be from late morning through mid-afternoon:
Even then, you’re not guaranteed to see rain in your neighborhood — the showers will be scattered, and won’t produce more than a half-inch of rain. The heaviest rain will fall west and northwest of Nashville, with lower amounts east and southeast.
The cool, pleasant air really settled into the Midstate tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures Tuesday will start off in the 50s…even 40s in a few spots!
And while abundant sunshine will warm things up quickly, high temperatures will top out near-normal, in the mid to upper 70s:
Cooler temperatures will settle in for the rest of the week, with highs in the 70s, and overnight lows in the 50s:
I had to add a chance of showers to the Wednesday-Thursday-Friday forecast, as an upper-level disturbance will set up camp over the eastern half of the country. It will just be spotty light shower activity, not an all-day washout. The showers should be gone in time for the weekend — in fact, the first weekend of October looks nothing short of fantastic!
Some nerdiness to start the new work-week…
- Now that the weather is trending in a fall-like direction, it’s time to ask — why is the internet so obsessed with autumn?
- NOAA researchers tell what it’s like to fly into the heart of a hurricane.
- 7 facts about unusual ways meteorologists classify and name hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones.
- Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano has recently expelled more magma than usual, creating stunning lava lakes.
- There might a huge and very salty ocean beneath Pluto’s icy exterior.
- The quest to identify and quantify dark matter is the next big challenge in astrophysics — studying spiral galaxies might actually complicate that effort.
- I never really thought about this question: how does the brain know where you are in bed?
- Scientists are hopeful that a new worldwide initiative will enable them to take brain-mapping to a new level.
- When you’re stressed out, your healthy food decisions may not matter as much.
- A new app lets you record and track your dog’s happiness and well-being.