September 21: Summer-like Start to Fall, Daily Links

WEATHER

Today’s weather will be very similar to yesterday’s — hot, but not too humid, with high temperatures around 90° this afternoon:
wednesday-highs
With the humidity remaining in check, no worries about the heat index or any storm chances this afternoon.

We’ll cool off nicely overnight, with Thursday morning temperatures starting off in the low to mid 60s:
thursday-lows
That’s above-average, but pretty comfortable (especially compared to the afternoons!).

Autumn officially arrives at 9:21am tomorrow, but it will still certainly feel like summer:
thursday-highs

More of the same on the way the rest of the week, even a degree or two warmer through the weekend.  That puts us fairly close to record territory, especially Saturday and Monday:
paul-heat-wave
The humidity will gradually increase as well, but rain chances will remain below 20% through Sunday:
wsmv-7-day-am

Relief from the summer-like temperatures is on the way next week, but its precise arrival time is still up in the air — that’s why I’m only putting a 20-30% chance in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.  The American forecast model (the GFS) brings a good chance of showers and thunderstorms into the Midstate already on Monday, with fall-like air to follow:
gfs_op_apcp_f138_us
Problem is, that forecast model isn’t the most-accurate.  Could it be right?  Sure!  In fact, I hope it is…but the European model is more reliable, and it holds the rain chance off until Wednesday:
ecmwf_apcp_f192_us
Either way, it looks like some genuinely autumnal air will move into the Midstate next week — it’s just a matter of exactly WHEN it will move in.  We’ll keep you posted.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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