September 16: Weekend Storm Chances, Daily Links


One more hot and humid day ahead of us, but we do at least have a chance of thunderstorms today to cool things off.  The best chance of storms will take shape this afternoon, but before then high temperatures will reach the low 90s once again:
Rain chances this afternoon will run in the 30-40% range from midday through the afternoon:
The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the disorganized pattern:As always, put more stock in the pattern rather than the placement — in a hot and muggy environment, the storms will pop up where they want, when they want.

More scattered storms are expected over the weekend.  The best chance during the day Saturday will be west of I-65, as shown here by the RPM model’s radar simulation (that’s the other short-range model in which I have a little more faith):
rpm-9a-sat rpm-12p-sat rpm-3p-sat rpm-6p-sat rpm-9p-sat
Forecast temperatures Saturday afternoon reflect the half-and-half pattern — cooler where it’s raining, very warm (and still muggy) where it isn’t raining:

The best chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide will move across the Midstate Saturday night, lingering into the early hours of Sunday morning:
rpm-12a-sun rpm-3a-sun rpm-6a-sun
The better rain chances will move eastward throughout the day Sunday, leaving us with drier conditions by late Sunday afternoon and evening:
rpm-9a-sun rpm-12p-sun rpm-3p-sun rpm-6p-sun

The system causing our weekend rain chances isn’t going to bring a big rush of fall-like air — in fact, next week is still looking pretty hot, with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above average:
But the humidity should be quite a bit lower, and that makes a big difference!



Last batch of nerd-news for this week…I’ll be off on Monday, but the links will be back on Tuesday.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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