September 1: Tracking Hermine, Relief From the Humidity

The big weather story is Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane?) Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico, but we’ll start with the big local weather story: lower humidity!  The mugginess is still substantial this morning, with dew points in the low 70s:
DEW POINT THU AM
MuggyMeter
But those dew point numbers will improve hour-by-hour as we head through today and tonight, and check out where the dew point will end up by Friday morning:
DEW POINT FRI AM
As the drier air moves in, it will squeeze the atmosphere overhead, which will allow for some spotty showers…maybe even a thundershower.  The HRRR model shows the hit-and-miss nature of our 30% chance:
hrrr_2016090110_ref_nashville
In between the showers, temperatures will warm up to the mid 80s:
THURSDAY HIGHS

Lots of stuff happening this evening, and the weather is looking pretty cooperative.  The humidity will be lower, and the rain chances should be well off to our south…good news for the Sounds game:
WSMV FIRST PITCH
And for Vanderbilt’s season opener:
VANDY
And for Live On The Green!
PAUL EVENT FORECAST 2

The lower-humidity air will stick around Friday and Saturday — both days are looking pleasantly warm, with a mix of clouds and sun.  Sunday will be hotter, but the humidity shouldn’t be too bad yet…but the mugginess will climb Monday and be back in full force by Tuesday and Wednesday.
WSMV 7 Day AM
Summer isn’t done with us yet.

Now to Hermine, the storm that is still a Tropical Storm as I type this, but could be upgraded to Hurricane Hermine at any point today.  The storm lacks a well-defined center on the satellite view, but it’s producing a lot of rain out over the Gulf, and has some pretty strong sustained winds:
PAUL SATELLITE TROPICAL
As Hermine moves to the north/northeast, it’s expected to reach Category One hurricane status before it makes landfall to the east of Appalachicola tonight:
HERMINE FORECAST 1
Regardless of the specific strength of the storm at landfall, these impacts are likely:
HERMINE
The expected path of Hermine takes it up the east coast and out over the Atlantic again by early next week:
HERMINE FORECAST 2
That means rip currents (and closed beaches) are likely along the East Coast through early next week.  The storm will become “extra-tropical” by Sunday — that means it will lose its defining tropical characteristics, but the wind/surf/rain threat will continue.  And the five-day forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center is more of a circle at this point:
HERMINE FORECAST 3
That’s because the forecast models are all over the place when it comes to where this system will go…some take it out to sea, other bend it back toward the Atlantic coast:
HERMINE SPAGHETTI

Hermine’s direct impact on our weather will be minimal, but we’ll keep you updated with the storm’s progress over the next several days as it continues to affect the eastern U.S.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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