August 29: Changes Ahead, Daily Links

WEATHER

It’s rare that changes in weather coincide exactly with changes in the calendar, but that’s the scenario we’re looking at later this week, as August tips over into September.  For these last few days of August though, expect more of the same — hazy, hot and humid conditions, with a slight storm chance each afternoon.  Temperatures today will reach the low 90s:
MONDAY HIGHS
And the humidity will be high enough to push the heat index to the upper 90s:
MONDAY HEAT INDEX
The weekend brought numerous storms to the Midstate, but today we’re just expecting a few “radar freckles” during the hottest part of the day, as the HRRR model shows here:
hrrr_2016082909_ref_nashville

More of the same tomorrow, then a slightly better storm chance on Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the north.  Superficially, you’d think that a cold front moving into a hot and humid air mass would be a recipe for some active weather, but it doesn’t look like things are going to come together for anything more than a 1-in-3 storm chance.  And that’s the highest storm chance in the whole 7-day forecast!
WSMV 7 Day AM
The humidity will be dropping throughout the day on Thursday, and we’ll get to enjoy some drier air for a few days.

The same “push” of dry air that will give us some relief from the humidity will also help steer the movement of a couple of tropical systems we’ll be watching this week.  Right now they’re both tropical depressions, but they’re both expected to strengthen to tropical storms in the next 24 hours.  (That’s when they get names — the next two names on the list are Hermine and Ian.)  One storm is expected to approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then get pushed out to sea…the other will stay in the Gulf of Mexico for a few days, then make a right turn toward the coast of Florida:
PAUL TROPICAL FORECAST
Neither is expected to reach hurricane strength, but of course both systems will be watched carefully.  The most-likely scenario for the Gulf of Mexico storm keeps its moisture away from the Midstate, so we’re unlikely to see any direct influence on our weather.

 

LINKS

Monday morning nerdiness…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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One Response to August 29: Changes Ahead, Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    Howdy again, Paul!
    More records on the way! It looks like we’ll tie the summer of 1943 for the most days with the daily mean of 80 (I propose we call this category “hot summer day index” or something along those lines) or higher.
    Here’s what the top 5 looks like right now:
    1943 – 72 days
    2016 – 69
    1952 – 69
    1954 – 67
    2010 – 65
    The next place is shared by three other years with 58 days each, so this is quite an achievement.
    For another record this summer shall move into a clear first place. This concerns most nights with temps of 70 or above.
    Summers with more than 60 such days:
    2016 – 67 (likely to become 70 if the forecast will hold)
    2010 – 67
    2005 – 65
    1943 – 65
    1952 – 61
    2007 – 60
    1934 – 60
    We wont be breaking any records for the daily max temps, but should still easily make top 10 for the most days with 90 degrees or up:
    1954 – 76 days
    1952 – 75
    1943 – 72
    2010 – 68
    1988 – 68
    2011 – 66
    2016 – 65 (likely with the current forecast)
    So, this is quite some summer we’ve lasted through!
    Finally, there’s another streak currently alive, one that doesn’t get much recognition. Typically, June is the least hot month of summer here, and one that has a greater temperature range than either July or August. Yet, for the last decade plus it’s been the most consistently hot summer month. The last time we had a June below the monthly average was back in 2004. The year prior to that Nashville had its last actually cool June. Since 2007, every June has been hot, that’s 10 in a row and counting (July and August have been all over the spectrum during that span). This had never happened before in 150 years of official record keeping in Nashville. Does all of this mean global warming is upon us? Giving a definite answer is difficult, but it’s also becoming harder to brush these facts aside and pretend it’s business as usual.

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