August 18: Stormy Few Days, Nice Weather Next Week

WEATHER

We had some hefty storms in southern Middle Tennessee this morning — they even prompted a few severe thunderstorm warnings, and caused some tree damage in Coffee county.  (No other damage reports as I’m typing this, but sometimes those take a little while to make their way to us.)

I don’t expect any additional severe thunderstorms today, but there will be quite a bit of rain, especially through midday.  The showers and will be more hit-and-miss during the afternoon…the HRRR did a good job of catching onto this morning’s storms, which gives me a little more confidence in its accuracy for the rest of the day:
hrrr_2016081811_ref_nashville
The hit-and-miss pattern this afternoon will allow enough light to filter through the clouds to warm us up to the low to mid 80s for highs:
PAUL EVENT FORECAST 2
If you’re heading out to Live On The Green, bring the rain jacket just in case — there will still some patchy showers and some drizzle, but I don’t anticipate a washout:
PAUL EVENT FORECAST 2
Plus, Jenny Lewis is the headliner this evening, and she’s awesome.

We’re not done with the rain chances after today — showers and storms are looking likely tomorrow.  Futurecast (the RPM model here) shows some stronger storms making their way from west-to-east across the Midstate throughout the day Friday:
RPM 8A FRI RPM 10A FRI RPM 12P FRI RPM 2P FRI RPM 4P FRI

Yet another good chance of storms will take shape on Saturday — some of that will depend on what happens with tomorrow’s storms, as the atmosphere gets re-arranged a little bit.  Still, an approaching cold front should “squeeze” the atmosphere enough to produce some heavier storms again.  The Storm Prediction Center hasn’t included us in any risk areas at this point, but the SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model (SREF) shows a 20-30% chance of severe weather ingredients Saturday afternoon:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f066
Damaging winds would be the primary threat from any storm that manages to become severe.  We’ll keep you updated as the situation develops.

Those showers and storms could linger into Sunday morning, then I think we’re done with the rain chances by midday Sunday.  Cooler and drier air will start moving into the Midstate, and it will make itself right at home by early next week:
MONDAY CHANGE
“Cooler” is relative this time of year, but how does this sound: high temperatures in the low 80s with lots of sunshine and low humidity!
MONDAY HIGHS
How low will the humidity be?  The long-range forecast models still anticipate dew points in the 50s by Monday afternoon — it doesn’t get much better than that this time of year!
gfs_dew2m_nashville_19 MuggyMeter

We’ll start to warm up a little bit on Wednesday, and the humidity will gradually increase as well.  We’re not DONE with the hot and sticky weather just yet, but it’s nice to get a few breaks from it now that we’re in the home stretch of summer.
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

Those pesky severe thunderstorms took up all my “look for science news on the internet” time today, so no nerd-links today.  The nerdiness will be back when I return to work on Monday.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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