August 17: Stormy, Then Comfortable, Daily Links

WEATHER

We saw scattered storms across the Midstate yesterday, and we’re in for more of the same today and all the way through the weekend.  It’s a frustrating pattern for weather forecasters, because it’s impossible to give you a precise prediction of when and where it will rain — we know there will be showers and storms, and we know the most likely time frame will be midday through early evening, but a neighborhood-by-neighborhood forecast just isn’t realistic.  That said, let’s get attempt to get into some details…

The reason for the unsettled pattern is a stalled out boundary draped across the Midstate — we call it a stationary front, but it’s not completely immobile.
VIDEO VIPIR
The boundary wobbles back and forth a bit, and becomes less well-defined with time…at this point, there really isn’t much of a temperature or moisture difference across the front, but it’s still enough to enhance our storm chances today through the weekend.

I’m not wild about the way ANY of the forecast models are handling the storm chances today, so here’s a breakdown of where and when we’re most likely to see storms developing:
PAUL RAIN TIMING PAUL DAYPART POPS
At no point are you guaranteed to get rain in your neighborhood — the best we can do in this weather pattern is try to narrow down the odds for you.  I realize that it’s very frustrating to try to make plans to work or play outdoors, but that’s just the reality of this type of weather pattern.

More of the same in store tomorrow and Friday — hit-and-miss showers and storms, but I can’t make any guarantees about rain (or the absence thereof) in any one place at any one time.  I’m actually more confident in the Saturday and Sunday rain chances, because it will be a stronger and more-organized weather system that will help to spark those storms:
WSMV 7 Day AM
It’s too soon to talk about severe weather potential, but that’s something we’ll keep a close eye on for the weekend.

Here’s the good news: cooler and more-comfortable air is still on the way next week!  Yesterday’s model data delayed the arrival of that air mass until Monday night and early Tuesday, but now it’s looking like we’re back to a Sunday night/early Monday arrival.  Daytime highs will still be warm, but overnight lows will drop to the 60s for the first time in over 7 weeks…and the humidity will be substantially lower!  Check out these forecast dew points for Monday afternoon, and where they rank on the “muggy meter”:
gfs_dew2m_nashville_23 MuggyMeter

 

LINKS

Advertisements

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to August 17: Stormy, Then Comfortable, Daily Links

  1. Pingback: Record Heat…Some Relief | 4WARN Weather Blog

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s