August 16: Increasing Storm Chances, Daily Links

WEATHER

First, the bad news: the drop in humidity I wrote about yesterday won’t arrive until next Monday night…that’s about 24 hours slower than we initially thought.  But here’s the good news: that drop in humidity is still on its way!  We just have to make it through an unsettled work week and weekend between now and then.

The unsettled pattern starts to kick in today, with the best chance of scattered storms to the west and northwest of Nashville:
PAUL RAIN TIMING
That pattern is especially apparent when you look at this afternoon’s temperature forecast — cooler under the clouds and more-widespread showers, still hot and muggy elsewhere:
TUESDAY HIGHS
I’m still not thrilled with how any of the forecast models are depicting the development of the scattered storms today, but the HRRR model pictured here seems to have a decent handle on things:
hrrrp_2016081611_ref_nashville

A couple of the storms today could become a bit stronger — the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

More thunderstorms are in the forecast through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with the best chance tomorrow.  The clouds associated with those storms will keep daily high temperatures short of 90 degrees, but there will still be plenty of humidity to keep things sticky:
WSMV 7 Day AM
Important note — there’s a difference between an “unsettled” pattern and a “washout” pattern.  If you have outdoor stuff on the agenda later this week, keep it on the agenda — there will be plenty of dry hours to get out and about, but you’ll just have to be ready to adjust based on Mother Nature’s whims.

And yes, this unsettled weather pattern will be followed up by a significant drop in humidity — the long-range forecast models are showing dew points in the 50s by next week.
gfs_dew2m_nashville_34
I can hardly wait.
excited

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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