August 15: Stormy Week Ahead, Daily Links

WEATHER

Another hot day in store for us today — what a surprise!  We’ll heat up to the upper 80s and low 90s, with a mix of clouds and sunshine overhead:
MONDAY HIGHS
Our low temperature this morning was 72, so with a high temperature around 90, our average temperature today (add the high and low, divide by 2) will be over 80 degrees…for the 44th day in a row!  That will tie the record for such a streak, set back in 2007.

We’ll probably see some scattered storms firing up in the heat and humidity this afternoon — I’m not wild about the way any of the forecast models are depicting that activity, so we’ll just go with this breakdown of where the best storm chances will develop:
PAUL RAIN TIMING
Not a guarantee of rain in any one particular spot, but those are high enough chances to force you to keep the umbrella handy.

Some relief from the heat is heading our way this week, thanks to better rain chances — but the humidity isn’t going anywhere soon.  A stalled-out front to our west/northwest will finally get a nudge in this direction over the next 48 hours, which means higher storm chances tomorrow and especially Wednesday:
WSMV 7 Day AM
The additional cloud cover will help keep high temperatures in the 80s, even once the storm chances retreat a bit Thursday and Friday.  A stronger cold front will head our way this weekend — I think the best chance of stronger and more widespread storms will take shape Saturday and Saturday night, but that remains very subject to revision.

Here’s the really good news: whenever that front moves through, it’s going to usher in a significantly drier air mass.  Not only does the really-long-range forecast look rain-free early next week, but it also shows dew point levels around or below 60 degrees:
gfs_dew2m_nashville_35
For perspective, here’s where that ranks on the “muggy meter”:
MuggyMeter

Yes, you have to wait a week for that break from the mugginess, but at this point it looks like it will be more than worth the wait!
cute-hallelujah-gif-212

 

LINKS

Lots of weather and space stuff in the nerd-news today…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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