August 11: Delayed Storm Chances

WEATHER

I had to make a few changes to the extended forecast this morning.  We generally like to be as consistent as possible with the 7-day forecast, so you’re not making and cancelling plans based on a 30% rain chance suddenly changing to a 70% chance — but when the data start to point in a different direction, we have to adjust as well.

Today’s forecast hasn’t changed much, other than a slight reduction in our storm chances this afternoon.  Like yesterday, morning clouds will give way to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon, in plenty of time for temperatures to reach (or exceed) 90 degrees:
THURSDAY HIGHS
Heat indices will once again reach the upper 90s:
THURSDAY HEAT INDEX
The short-term models, including the HRRR looped here, don’t show much of a storm chance — just hit-and-miss activity:
hrrr_2016081111_ref_nashville
But with this kind of heat and humidity, it’s hard to drop the rain chance below 30%, so that’s where we’ll leave it.  If you’re heading out to Live On The Green in Nashville tonight, be prepared for passing shower, just in case…but I’m optimistic that the weather should be mostly cooperative.  Just be ready to sweat:
PAUL EVENT FORECAST 2

An even lower storm chance tomorrow — while there will be plenty of humidity at ground level, it just doesn’t look like there will be enough moisture through the depth of the atmosphere to allow widespread storms to develop.  Lower storm chances = more heat:
FRIDAY HIGHS

The forecast still trends in a more-unsettled direction through the weekend, but I’ve dropped the rain chances Saturday and Sunday from 50-60% to 30-40%.  While that’s not a dry forecast, it looks like the best chance of widespread storms will stay to our northwest.  Across the Midstate, the best storm chances will be in northwestern Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky, but even there it shouldn’t be a washout, and we should be able to avoid any flooding problems:
PAUL ECMWF RAIN

The better chance of storms will sag southward across the Midstate next week — it’s the back half of the 7-day forecast, and there are still plenty of differences between the various forecast model depictions, so we can’t go higher than a 50% chance on a day-to-day basis:
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Ran out of time before I could mine the internet for nerdiness today…but that means super-sized nerdiness tomorrow!

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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