August 8: Record-Breaking Warmth, Daily Links

WEATHER

No doubt about it, the weather for the past five weeks has been hot — since July 3, our average high temperature has been 92.8 degrees, and the average low has been 72.9 degrees.  We haven’t set any daily temperature records in that time frame, but we’re approaching a record for warm-spell longevity.  The last time the temperature in Nashville dropped below 70 degrees was on July 2 — that means today is the 37th consecutive day when even the LOW temperature has been 70 or above.  That got me thinking…what’s the longest such streak in Nashville history?  I asked the National Weather Service to do some digging, and here’s what they came up with for the “most consecutive days with minimum temperatures above 70 degrees”:

YEAR                           NUMBER OF DAYS ABOVE 70                          ENDING DATE
1955                                              41 days                                                                       August 12
2016                                             37 days…and counting                                                  ???
2012                                             30 days                                                                         July 28
2011                                              30 days                                                                       August 1
1993                                             30 days                                                                         July 29

Many thanks to Samuel Herron of NWS-Nashville for pulling that data for me.  There’s no end to the current streak in sight, so unless the scattered storms this week unexpectedly cool us off, we’ll be breaking that record by Saturday:
WSMV 7 Day AM

Why is all of that relevant?  Because it’s not just the daytime heat that wears you down this time of year — the sneaky part of the heat is how little it cools off at night.  When you walk out the door first thing in the morning and it’s already uncomfortably warm, you don’t get any break, AT ALL.  (This is also the sneaky part about climate change — it’s not just summertime high temperatures that are getting hotter.  It’s the increase in average temperatures, year-round and world-wide, that’s the greater concern.)

So, are you ready for some good news?  The humidity will be lower today!
Hurray
Now, don’t get your hopes up for any comfortable air — dew points this afternoon will still be in the upper half of the 60s, but it’s the first time in a while that we’ll be below 70 on the “muggy meter” (unless you live in eastern Middle Tennessee):
PAUL RPM 4KM DEW POINT MuggyMeter
It will still hot today, but “normally hot” with highs around 90:
PAUL RPM 4KM Temperature
The best chance of storms today will be in the still-very-humid higher terrain of eastern Middle Tennessee, as this morning’s HRRR model run shows:
hrrr_2016080809_ref_nashville

The oppressive humidity will be back in place tomorrow, and it will stick around the rest of the week.
oh-hooray-o
That means our unsettled weather pattern will be back in place as well, with scattered storms likely in the midday and afternoon hours.  Tuesday’s storm chances look like this, according to the RPM model:
RPM 12P TUE RPM 2P TUE RPM 4P TUE RPM 6P TUE
As always, the overall pattern depicted by the models is more valuable than the specific when/where of the storms that they show.  Just plan on keeping the umbrella handy through the weekend, and be flexible with any outdoor plans.

 

LINKS

Some Monday morning nerdiness for you…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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5 Responses to August 8: Record-Breaking Warmth, Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    Hi, Paul!,
    You beat me to the punch with this post about current streak of daily lows not falling below 70. Actually, it coincides with another one: today is 37th straight day with daily mean of 80 or higher. This is the second longest such streak behind 44 set back in 2007 (from 7-27 thru 9-08). The 3rd longest happened in 1969 (33 days from 6-25 thru 7-27). This one will probably end by Thursday or Friday, but it’s still impressive considering we haven’t had extremely high temps (daily high, low and average) this summer. All this also means that last month set the record for the most consecutive days with T avg >= 80 (29) and most such days in the month of July. It also tied July of 1993 for the highest lowest daily mean for the seventh month (78F) and was the most consistent temperature-wise of all hot Julys and near the top for those categories for any July. The last day with daily mean below the norm (and very slightly, mind you, less than 1 degree) was July 1.Yes, this summer has so far redefined the term “consistency”.
    p.s. your entry of 1992 in the above post is incorrect, it should be 1993. The complete data set is available here http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/.

    • paulheggen33 says:

      Good catch! Should’ve double-checked the data. Good tidbit about the 80-degree days as well — that one is harder to explain on the air, though. Once I start talking about statistics, I can just HEAR people’s eyes glazing over…

      • Fred says:

        Well, never trust the machines;-). I guess 80 is a pretty good indication of a hot day here in Nash, and we’ve already had plenty so far… I hear you on that one but there’s an army of stats freaks out there, too.

    • paulheggen33 says:

      Also, thanks for the link! Somehow I didn’t know that existed…I’m going to pretty much spend the rest of the morning looking at data. 🙂

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