This time of year, we usually see our best storm chances in the afternoon, once the atmosphere has heated up…the calmest time of day is generally just after sunrise. We’re flipping that around today, with the best chance of rain this morning through midday, and just a slight storm chance later in the afternoon:
The HRRR model has a pretty handle on the overall pattern, showing the best chance of rain west of I-24 early in the day:
Once the rain chances diminish, breaks in the clouds will allow the August sunshine to heat us rapidly, to near 90 for late-afternoon highs:
We’ll hit the mid 90s again Thursday, before a better chance of storms shapes up again in the afternoon and early evening. The forecast model radar simulations haven’t been showing much rain for Thursday just yet, but it looks like a ripple in the upper levels of the atmosphere will pass nearby, and that should push our rain chances into the 50-50 range:
More spotty to scattered storms will be possible each day through the weekend — the precise day-by-day and hour-by-hour chances will be determined by the timing and placement of those little atmospheric ripples, and it’s virtually impossible to predict such small features more than a couple of days in advance. It looks like hotter weather will keep a lid on our storm chances early next week.
Last batch of nerd-links for the week…I’m on vacation for a few days. Back at it dark and early Monday morning!
- The flooding in Maryland over the weekend was a 1-in-1000-year event, the 9th such flood in the United States since 2010.
- We’re just getting to the beginning of the most-active time of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s looking like the next few weeks might be busy.
- Economists say the battle against climate change has passed a key turning point.
- This is the kind of innovative technology that makes me optimistic about our prospects to invent our way away from a warming climate: a solar-powered device that extracts carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to produce fuel.
- Lots of stuff for amateur astronomers to watch for this week, including aligned planets and a meteor shower.
- Why NASA believes we might still find life on Mars.
- The atmosphere over Jupiter’s Great Red Spot is several hundred degrees hotter than the rest of the giant planet’s atmosphere.
- Here’s how NASA’s Juno spacecraft, in orbit around Jupiter now, will help teach astronomers about other solar systems.
- The air inside an airplane during flight is drier than the Sahara Desert. But there’s a new device that could help fix that.
- It’s not an entirely dumb question, what with the Zika virus in the news so often: why not just kill every mosquito on the planet?
- Keep this in mind when you’re watching the Olympics the next couple of weeks: here’s what’s in the water in Rio.