August 2: Storms and Heat, Daily Links

WEATHER

This time of year, we usually see our best storm chances in the afternoon, once the atmosphere has heated up…the calmest time of day is generally just after sunrise.  We’re flipping that around today, with the best chance of rain this morning through midday, and just a slight storm chance later in the afternoon:
PAUL DAYPART POPS
The HRRR model has a pretty handle on the overall pattern, showing the best chance of rain west of I-24 early in the day:
hrrr_2016080211_ref_nashville
Once the rain chances diminish, breaks in the clouds will allow the August sunshine to heat us rapidly, to near 90 for late-afternoon highs:
TUESDAY HIGHS

The storm chances will remain low throughout the day Wednesday, which gives us plenty of room to heat up to highs in the mid 90s:
WEDNESDAY HIGHS

We’ll hit the mid 90s again Thursday, before a better chance of storms shapes up again in the afternoon and early evening.  The forecast model radar simulations haven’t been showing much rain for Thursday just yet, but it looks like a ripple in the upper levels of the atmosphere will pass nearby, and that should push our rain chances into the 50-50 range:
WSMV 7 Day AM
More spotty to scattered storms will be possible each day through the weekend — the precise day-by-day and hour-by-hour chances will be determined by the timing and placement of those little atmospheric ripples, and it’s virtually impossible to predict such small features more than a couple of days in advance.  It looks like hotter weather will keep a lid on our storm chances early next week.

 

LINKS

Last batch of nerd-links for the week…I’m on vacation for a few days.  Back at it dark and early Monday morning!

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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