August 1: More of the Same Weather, Daily Links

WEATHER

Nashville’s average temperature during the month of July was 84.5 degrees, making it the 10th hottest July on record (dating back to the 1870s).  But we also picked up 6.28″ of rain in July, which ranks in the top 25!  More of the same weather is in store as we start off the new month — hot and muggy, with scattered storms.

The average high temperatures in early August is exactly 90 degrees, and it looks like we’ll top out slightly above that this afternoon:
MONDAY HIGHS
The humidity will be substantial enough to push the heat index into the upper 90s:
MONDAY HEAT INDEX

Some relief from the heat and humidity is possible in the form of rain-cooled air this afternoon.  Not only will we have our usual chance of pop-up storms, but we’ll also be watching for storms to make a run towards us from the northwest.  Futurecast (using the RPM model here) tries to squash those storms as they move into the Midstate, but it still shows some hit and miss activity into early evening:
RPM 2P MON RPM 4P MON RPM 6P MON RPM 8P MON
A different forecast model (the HRRR) is in rough agreement with that scenario:
hrrr_2016080111_ref_nashville
I’m not so sure about those depictions — the forecast models, even the best ones, have a tendency to underestimate how long thunderstorms will main their intensity.  The air over the Midstate will be hot, it’ll be humid, and that means the environment will be favorable for those storms to hold together.  Here’s how I’m estimating our hour-by-hour rain chances throughout the day:
PAUL DAYPART POPS

We’re looking at a better storm chance tomorrow — there’s some conflicting data (as always), but I think we’ll see showers and storms move in from the northwest by mid- to late-morning, with the best chance of thunderstorms around midday:
RPM 10A TUE RPM 12P TUE RPM 2P TUE RPM 4P TUE
A few stronger storms are possible, but our severe weather potential doesn’t look significant, the way things are shaping up at this point.

A decrease in our rain chances Wednesday means an increase in our temperatures, up to the low to mid 90s for midweek highs.  After that, back to the “same old, same old” daily routine — hot and muggy, with a chance of scattered storms each day through the weekend:
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Some early-week science news and general nerdiness…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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