Nashville’s average temperature during the month of July was 84.5 degrees, making it the 10th hottest July on record (dating back to the 1870s). But we also picked up 6.28″ of rain in July, which ranks in the top 25! More of the same weather is in store as we start off the new month — hot and muggy, with scattered storms.
The average high temperatures in early August is exactly 90 degrees, and it looks like we’ll top out slightly above that this afternoon:
The humidity will be substantial enough to push the heat index into the upper 90s:
Some relief from the heat and humidity is possible in the form of rain-cooled air this afternoon. Not only will we have our usual chance of pop-up storms, but we’ll also be watching for storms to make a run towards us from the northwest. Futurecast (using the RPM model here) tries to squash those storms as they move into the Midstate, but it still shows some hit and miss activity into early evening:
A different forecast model (the HRRR) is in rough agreement with that scenario:
I’m not so sure about those depictions — the forecast models, even the best ones, have a tendency to underestimate how long thunderstorms will main their intensity. The air over the Midstate will be hot, it’ll be humid, and that means the environment will be favorable for those storms to hold together. Here’s how I’m estimating our hour-by-hour rain chances throughout the day:
We’re looking at a better storm chance tomorrow — there’s some conflicting data (as always), but I think we’ll see showers and storms move in from the northwest by mid- to late-morning, with the best chance of thunderstorms around midday:
A few stronger storms are possible, but our severe weather potential doesn’t look significant, the way things are shaping up at this point.
A decrease in our rain chances Wednesday means an increase in our temperatures, up to the low to mid 90s for midweek highs. After that, back to the “same old, same old” daily routine — hot and muggy, with a chance of scattered storms each day through the weekend:
Some early-week science news and general nerdiness…
- The big weather story over the weekend was the deadly flash flooding in Maryland.
- Extreme weather events (heat waves, heavy rainfall, etc.) become more and more likely as the climate warms, but that’s far from the only factor that played into the Maryland floods.
- After a quiet month and a half in the Atlantic hurricane season, we’re likely to see advisories issued for a new tropical depression in the next 24 to 48 hours.
- That disturbance is in the Caribbean…but the real area to watch for developing tropical systems is much farther east, over Africa.
- We tend to not think of the state very often unless planning a vacation — but how common are severe thunderstorms in Alaska?
- NASA’s Juno probe near Jupiter finished one of two planned “capture orbits” yesterday — we should see some new data later this month when the probe makes its closest pass to Jupiter itself.
- What science says about the various planks of the Democratic party platform. (I linked to a similar analysis of the Republican party platform after their convention — if you missed that, you can read it here.)
- A visual guide to running like an Olympian.
- How to eat to fuel your workout. (Be sure to check out the infographic on the right-hand side of that story.)
- I’m fascinated with the research that’s being done at the Large Hadron Collider in Europe — here’s what’s ahead for the LHC in the next several years. (And if you want to learn more, watch the documentary Particle Fever or read Lisa Randall’s excellent book Knocking On Heaven’s Door.)