Flooding was the big weather story earlier today, with heavy rain to the east and northeast of Nashville — parts of Sumner, Wilson, Trousdale, Macon, Smith, Jackson and Clay counties were under flash flood warnings, as 2″-4″ of rain added up (indicated by the yellow spots on this radar-estimated rainfall accumulation map):
It’s still an unsettled pattern this evening — as I’m posting this (5:30pm), we have spotty thunderstorms in pockets around the Midstate, with more-widespread thunderstorm activity trying to move in both from the northwest and the west:
The various forecast models anticipate that the storms to our west will fizzle out and collapse as they try to head our way — this is the HRRR model, but the other short-range models are in general agreement with its depiction:
But even when the forecast models agree, that doesn’t mean they’re right. We’ll still have at least spotty storms this evening, and I’ll be here keeping an eye on the rain out west — go ahead with your outdoor plans for the evening, but be ready to adjust to whatever Mother Nature throws your way.
That’s pretty good advice as we head through the weekend as well! We’ll still be stuck in this “unsettled” weather pattern, which means scattered storms will be possible — the most likely time frame for those storms will be from midday through early evening:
The forecast models are showing some big differences regarding tomorrow’s storm chances…the RPM model here just has spotty afternoon activity, mostly north of I-40:
The BAMS model agrees on the timing, but it shows more-widespread and heftier storms:
It will still be hot and muggy, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s to around 90 degrees in between the scattered thunderstorms:
The heat index will climb to the upper 90s during the hottest part of the day.
Last batch of nerd-links for the week…some deeply nerdy stuff for you today.
- The National Hurricane Center is now watching a couple of “investigation” areas that could potentially grow into tropical systems. This is the first activity we’ve seen in almost two months, despite the fact that the Atlantic is toasty warm. What gives?
- Within 3 years, the U.S. will be running a new global forecast model.
- NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) will also be making some changes to a couple of other forecast models as well.
- 4 ways to get through a power outage without spending big bucks on a generator.
- Each and every lower-48 U.S. state could be hotter than (current day) Mexico by 2100 — but I’m optimistic we’ll see policy changes that will keep that from happening.
- Climate models have been doing a pretty good job of estimating the level of warming that has occurred to this point.
- A warmer climate also means a longer mosquito season.
- Scientists have given up on trying to establish contact with the Philae comet lander.
- NASA has started a fresh effort to learn how to recognize extraterrestrial life.
- Astronomers are discovering literally thousands of previously-unknown exoplanets, and they’re changing the theories of how planetary systems form in the first place.
- Could dark energy (the stuff responsible for the continuing expansion of the universe) be caused by a reaction to the other stuff in the universe?
- Your brain wasn’t built with an automatic understanding of physics, obviously — here’s how it re-wires itself to learn abstract concepts.
- A neuroscientist weighs in on why U.S. Olympic gymnast Simone Biles has such incredible balance.