July 29: Hot and Unsettled Weekend, Daily Links

WEATHER

Flooding was the big weather story earlier today, with heavy rain to the east and northeast of Nashville — parts of Sumner, Wilson, Trousdale, Macon, Smith, Jackson and Clay counties were under flash flood warnings, as 2″-4″ of rain added up (indicated by the yellow spots on this radar-estimated rainfall accumulation map):
VIDEO RADAR

It’s still an unsettled pattern this evening — as I’m posting this (5:30pm), we have spotty thunderstorms in pockets around the Midstate, with more-widespread thunderstorm activity trying to move in both from the northwest and the west:
VIDEO VIPIR

The various forecast models anticipate that the storms to our west will fizzle out and collapse as they try to head our way — this is the HRRR model, but the other short-range models are in general agreement with its depiction:
hrrr_2016072920_ref_nashville
But even when the forecast models agree, that doesn’t mean they’re right.  We’ll still have at least spotty storms this evening, and I’ll be here keeping an eye on the rain out west — go ahead with your outdoor plans for the evening, but be ready to adjust to whatever Mother Nature throws your way.

That’s pretty good advice as we head through the weekend as well!  We’ll still be stuck in this “unsettled” weather pattern, which means scattered storms will be possible — the most likely time frame for those storms will be from midday through early evening:
PAUL DAYPART POPS
The forecast models are showing some big differences regarding tomorrow’s storm chances…the RPM model here just has spotty afternoon activity, mostly north of I-40:
RPM 12P SAT RPM 3P SAT RPM 6P SAT
The BAMS model agrees on the timing, but it shows more-widespread and heftier storms:
BAMS 12P SAT BAMS 2P SAT BAMS 4P SAT BAMS 6P SAT

I lean more toward the first model’s scenario, but not completely — better storm chances as you head north, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be completely dry farther south:
PAUL RAIN TIMING

It will still be hot and muggy, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s to around 90 degrees in between the scattered thunderstorms:
SATURDAY HIGHS
The heat index will climb to the upper 90s during the hottest part of the day.

More of the same Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, before our rain chances go down Wednesday and Thursday…but that means our temperatures will do the opposite:
7 Day PM

 

LINKS

Last batch of nerd-links for the week…some deeply nerdy stuff for you today.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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