July 26: Hot Today, Relief Ahead, Daily Links

WEATHER

Yet another hot and muggy day in store for us today, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s this afternoon, and the heat index hovering around 100 degrees:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH
Those are the “before and in between the storms” temperatures.  We’re likely to stay dry this morning, with a few showers popping up by midday — the best chance of storms will develop this afternoon, as Futurecast shows (the RPM model here):
RPM 1P TUE RPM 3P TUE RPM 5P TUE RPM 7P TUE
The HRRR model is in rough agreement:
hrrr_2016072611_ref_nashville

Tomorrow’s weather will be similar, but not identical…I think the showers will start popping up just a little bit earlier, which means temperatures will be just a couple of degrees lower:
WEDNESDAY HIGHS
You have slightly better odds of seeing a storm in your neighborhood Wednesday afternoon, and the storm chances should linger even past sunset:
RPM 12P WED RPM 3P WED RPM 6P WED RPM 9P WED

The best chance of widespread and stronger storms will arrive on Thursday.  I don’t really trust the model-generated radar simulations that far in advance, but this sequence at least gives you a sense of the overall pattern:
RPM 8A THU RPM 12P THU RPM 4P THU RPM 8P THU
The upper levels of the atmosphere will be more favorably set up for “organized” storms on Thursday — it’s far from a significant severe weather threat, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few severe storms with a damaging wind threat:
PAUL SEVERE WEEKLY
The higher rain chance equates to some long-awaited relief from the heat — highs on Thursday and Friday will only be in the 80s…but the humidity will still be substantial!

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week — the gradual decrease in rain chances reflects the usual long-range uncertainty, rather than any large-scale shift in the overall pattern:
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Your Tuesday morning nerdiness…lots of weather-related stuff today.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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