July 21: Hot and Humid Again, Daily Links

WEATHER

I promise I didn’t just copy and paste the weather section from yesterday’s blog post…it was a tempting option, but I refrained.  Just subtle changes to the overall forecast — temperatures today will be a couple degrees hotter compared to yesterday:PAUL iCast TemperatureAnd the heat index will still be in the 100-105 range:
PAUL iCast Heat Index

Nashville was lucky enough yesterday to get a thunderstorm that popped up pretty much right over Metro…that kept high temperatures confined to the mid 90s for highs.  Today, it’s not very likely that we’ll be so fortunate.  The HRRR model just shows a few radar freckles this afternoon, mostly on the periphery of the Midstate:
hrrr_2016072111_ref_nashville
Calling that even a 20% chance is probably a stretch, but we’ll stick with that number.

The peak of this heat wave will last through the weekend, but we’re not likely to set any daily record high temperatures:
PAUL HEAT WAVE
Yes, I’ve backed off the 100-degree forecast for Friday.  It’s more of a psychological barrier rather than a sensible difference — you can’t really tell 99 from 100 when you’re outside.

Spotty storms are a bit more likely over the weekend, but temperatures will still be very hot.  The best storm chances will develop in the afternoon, typical for this type of pattern:
WSMV 7 Day AM
A better chance of storms early next week will bring an end to the worst of the oppressive heat, but the coolest day in the 7-day forecast still shows a high of 91 — that’s hot, even by July-in-the-Midstate standards.

 

LINKS

Nerds.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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