July 15: Weekend Storm Chances, Daily Links

WEATHER

The lid stayed on the atmosphere today — thunderstorms just refused to develop over most of the Midstate, and temperatures warmed up to the upper 80s and low 90s.  There’s still plenty of humidity in place though, and we could still see some scattered storms moving in this evening.  At the time I’m publishing this post (around 6pm), we’re watching numerous storms along the Mississippi River to our west, and along the Ohio River to our north and northwest…and just a few over the northwestern corner of the Midstate:
VIDEO VIPIR
Those storms haven’t been in much of a hurry — they’ve just been slowly drifting, rather than actually moving.  But as we go through the evening, those storms could start making some progress in our direction…or, we could see a few developing in northwestern Middle Tennessee and the western half of southern Kentucky.  The RPM model certainly anticipates that scenario:
RPM 7P FRI RPM 9P FRI RPM 11P FRI RPM 1A SAT
And the HRRR model gets even more carried away with our rain chances:
hrrr_2016071521_ref_nashville
Honestly, I’ll believe it when I see it.  This morning’s weather balloon data showed a pretty deep layer of warm air above our heads — that’s why the storms didn’t pop this afternoon, and I think it will suppress our storm chances this evening as well.  But there’s enough uncertainty to continue with a decent chance of at least a passing shower/storm in western Middle Tennessee this evening, with decreasing rain chances as you go east:
PAUL RAIN TIMING

More scattered storms are possible on Saturday, with the best chance along and south of I-40.  In terms of timing, the midday and afternoon hours will bring the best rain chances:
RPM 11A SAT RPM 2P SAT RPM 5P SAT
Even so, don’t cancel any outdoor plans for Saturday — just be ready to adjust if Mother Nature throws some storms your way.  Be ready to deal with hot and muggy conditions in between the scattered storms:
SATURDAY HIGHS

Sunday’s rain chances will be much lower, thanks to sinking motion in the atmosphere overhead (air has to go UP to produce storms).  This time of year, the equation is pretty simple: lower rain chances = higher temperatures.  Sunday and Monday will quite hot, and still steamy…heat indices are likely to climb over 100 degrees both days:
7 Day PM
We’ll get a one-day reprieve from the worst of the heat on Tuesday — that’s our best rain chance in the extended forecast.  Back to the mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday, and we could threaten triple digits (for air temperatures) by Friday and Saturday!

 

LINKS

Since I’m on the evening shift to finish off the work week, I’ve had a little more time to mine the interwebs for you last batch of nerdery this week…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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