Heat, Planets and Rain

Today was our hottest day for the week, hitting 95 degrees this afternoon. Not only was it hot but it was humid with the “feels like” temperatures rising to over 100 degrees. That’s leading us into a warm and muggy night.  The sky is staying clear enough now for a glimpse at the moon again tonight and also Mars. Now that the sun has set look for a waxing gibbous moon near a reddish “star.” That star like object is Mars. This duo will be out through the wee hours of the morning, but the later you wait the more clouds will move in. It will also be visible tomorrow night, but viewing may be better tonight with fewer clouds.

Blog 2016-july-13-moon-and-mars

Those clouds are with the next system that promises to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Friday.  For many the rain is welcomed.   Over the weekend you can expect more showers and thunderstorms.  But I think they will be few and far between.  So I would go ahead with outdoor plans this weekend and just have a place to duck for shelter if a passing storm moves in.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST.png

Now back to the heat.  The chance of rain will slightly lower the temperatures for a few days, but the mid 90s will return later in the 7 day period.  It is July afterall and we do expect it to be hot.  If it seems to be hotter than it used to be, you perceive correctly.  Since 1970 in Nashville, we have had 8 more days of 95 degrees or above.

Blog 2016DaysAbove_nashville_en_title_lg

The projection is for there to be more dangerously hot days in the future with the heat index above 105 degrees…jumping from 13 days in the year 2000 to 44 days in the year 2030.  That will not only have an impact on health but the economy too.  These projections are from Climate Central’s analysis of the CMIP5 multi model ensemble.

Blog 2016DangerDays_nashville_en_title_lg

Definitely something to think about  as we look for ways to address the changing climate.

Join me tonight on Channel 4 News at 10, I’ll have a update on the weather for the rest of the week into the weekend.

Lisa Spencer

posted 9pm

 

 

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About Lisa Spencer

Lisa Spencer is the chief meteorologist at WSMV Channel 4 Nashville. You can catch her weathercasts weekdays at 5pm, 6pm and 10pm.
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3 Responses to Heat, Planets and Rain

  1. Matt Beaty says:

    I appreciate the great info on this blog and read it nearly every day as one of my primary means of getting weather information. That being said, I have noticed a bad tend lately with a lot of the Climate Central info graphics. They seem very eager to add trend lines to their data sets with no regard for showing their “R” correlation coefficient. From this, they imply there is a trend, but mathematically there is none. The chart showing the number of 95 F days in this post is a great example. I did a quick recreation of the data in excel and calculated a correlation coefficient of less than 0.1, implying there is absolutely no trend to be implied from the data. Climate Central should be ashamed of themselves for implying otherwise, but this is far from the first time I have noticed this.

    • paulheggen33 says:

      Fair point, Matt. We’ll try to be more careful to point out whether the data show a “loose correlation” or a “strong correlation” — I’d love to show r-squared values, but people have a hard enough time understanding our storm-chance percentages. Thanks for the feedback!

  2. Lisa Spencer says:

    Matt, I will share your comment with Climate Central to give them a chance to reply since they created the graphic.

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