We had plenty of early morning rain to the north and northwest of Nashville, especially around Clarksville. As that early rain moves to the east-northeast, we expect more storms to develop and move in generally the same direction. Today’s forecast model data doesn’t look as useless as yesterday’s, which is nice. The RPM model shows the best chance of rain along and north of I-40 through early afternoon, building southward as it moves east.
The WRF model depicts a similar scenario:
Meteorologists like it when forecast models are in at least rough agreement with each other. We may not like what they’re saying, but model consensus generally points toward a more-accurate forecast. (Problem is, the models could also just be representing a similarly-inaccurate forecast.) Our severe chances will remain low today — heavy rain and intense lightning will certainly be possible with the strongest storms, but the odds of damaging winds or large hail just aren’t very high today.
Lower rain chances will prevail tomorrow…not zero, but around 20%, which is generally the lowest we see this time of year. As temperatures heat up to the low 90s, the lid could pop off the atmosphere (not literally) in a few spots:
Lower rain chances equal hotter temperatures, and tomorrow will be no exception:
Heat indices will flirt with triple-digit territory.
The unsettled weather pattern moves back into the Midstate on Thursday, and it will stick around through the weekend. Temperatures will still climb to the low 90s on Thursday before the better storm chances develop, then we’ll hover around 90 for daily highs, in between the intermittent showers and thunderstorms.
A drier (and consequently hotter) weather pattern looks like it will build across the eastern two-thirds of the country next week. The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above-average temperatures:
Some high-quality nerdery for you today…
- Some crazy video from East Tennessee, of a downburst associated with last Friday’s severe thunderstorms (the storms that prompted a couple of tornado warnings as they moved through northeastern Middle Tennessee).
- Weather-related content is taking a larger and larger role in journalism.
- A slowdown in the Gulf Stream may not necessarily have an immediate impact on European weather.
- A new cloud study will lead to more accurate climate models…but it doesn’t spell much good news for the climate itself. Plus, existing climate models are already doing a pretty good job of simulating cloud cover.
- Pretty much everyone who looks at climate change seriously agrees that it’s real. What to actually do about it is still subject to a lot of debate.
- Roughly 78% of the atmosphere is nitrogen, and 21% oxygen. If you take a deep breath in the middle of a city, what is the other 1% made of?
- Is the Sun going into a quiet period?
- Scientists are contending with a “critical risk” to potential Mars missions.
- Astronomers have discovered a new dwarf planet in the Kuiper Belt (the area of icy bodies beyond Neptune’s orbit).
- Some amazing illustrations here: what the Sun looks like from the other planets in the solar system.
- The first water clouds have been discovered outside of our solar system — around a failed star.
- A supernova in our cosmic neighborhood may have led to a “minor mass extinction” about two and half million years ago. (Quote marks around that phrase because it sounds like an inherent contradiction to me.)
- Is it possible to find out where the Big Bang started?
- Math AND space geekiness: a new equation estimates the odds of life getting started (on any planet, since we know the odds here are 100%).