July 12: More Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

I know you’ll be stunned by this, but we have more scattered storms in the forecast today.  Equally shocking, it will be warm and muggy in between the storms.
mshckd

We had plenty of early morning rain to the north and northwest of Nashville, especially around Clarksville.  As that early rain moves to the east-northeast, we expect more storms to develop and move in generally the same direction.  Today’s forecast model data doesn’t look as useless as yesterday’s, which is nice.  The RPM model shows the best chance of rain along and north of I-40 through early afternoon, building southward as it moves east.
RPM 10A TUE RPM 12P TUE RPM 2P TUE RPM 4P TUE RPM 6P TUE
The WRF model depicts a similar scenario:
WRF 10A TUE WRF 12P TUE WRF 2P TUE WRF 4P TUE WRF 6P TUE
Meteorologists like it when forecast models are in at least rough agreement with each other.  We may not like what they’re saying, but model consensus generally points toward a more-accurate forecast.  (Problem is, the models could also just be representing a similarly-inaccurate forecast.)  Our severe chances will remain low today — heavy rain and intense lightning will certainly be possible with the strongest storms, but the odds of damaging winds or large hail just aren’t very high today.

Whenever it’s raining, your temperatures will drop to the 70s, but in between the showers and storms we’ll top out in the mid to upper 80s…with enough humidity to make it feel like the mid 90s:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH

Lower rain chances will prevail tomorrow…not zero, but around 20%, which is generally the lowest we see this time of year.  As temperatures heat up to the low 90s, the lid could pop off the atmosphere (not literally) in a few spots:
RPM 2P WE RPM 4P WED RPM 6P WED
Lower rain chances equal hotter temperatures, and tomorrow will be no exception:
WEDNESDAY HIGHS
Heat indices will flirt with triple-digit territory.
WEDNESDAY HEAT INDEX

The unsettled weather pattern moves back into the Midstate on Thursday, and it will stick around through the weekend.  Temperatures will still climb to the low 90s on Thursday before the better storm chances develop, then we’ll hover around 90 for daily highs, in between the intermittent showers and thunderstorms.
WSMV 7 Day AM
A drier (and consequently hotter) weather pattern looks like it will build across the eastern two-thirds of the country next week.  The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above-average temperatures:
610temp.new

 

LINKS

Some high-quality nerdery for you today…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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