Quiet Morning Turns To Afternoon Storms

What a difference in the weather pattern in just one day! Major flooding and severe storms was the main story yesterday morning. A well deserved break this morning but don’t get too comfy. It is brief! Though most flood warnings have expired, a Flood Advisory continues for the Cumberland River at Clarksville until the afternoon today. Flood stage is forty six feet and the river is expected to rise above it through the morning hours. This is in the same county (Montgomery County), where rainfall totals hit near ten inches yesterday morning…way too much in such a short period of time! Yikes!

WSMV FLOOD WARNINGS.png
Well, a beautiful rain-free radar was a much deserved break this morning but our next round of showers and storms waste no time. A frontal boundary currently exiting southeastern Missouri will push southeastward through Tennessee today, sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms. With latest model runs, the main timeline looks to be during the afternoon to evening hours today.
VIDEO VIPIR
With already saturated grounds north of the I-40 corridor, this is BAD news. Any additional rain will not be a good situation with more flooding. Areas south of the I-40 corridor could actually use more rain to make up for the deficit. A good chunk of Tennessee still fits under the abnormally dry or extreme drought category. So for the south, bring it on, rain!
LS PICTURE 6
Scorching temperatures in the middle 90s will combine with oppressive dew point values to fuel an unstable air mass today.
DD SKY1 TODAY
Not only will your clothes likely stick to your body and hair frizz up but these high dew point values will only aid in leading to another round of strong to potentially severe storms across the region. Damaging straight line winds, torrential downpours, and frequent lightning will be the greatest threats with these storms.
Here’s how Futurecast pans out the timing of shower and storm activity, today through tonight…
PAUL RPM 4KM
PAUL RPM 4KM
PAUL RPM 4KM.png
PAUL RPM 4KM
Here’s the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center. Areas under the YELLOW color are under a ‘Slight Risk’ (2 out of a 1-5 scale) for severe weather and areas under the GREEN are under a ‘Marginal Risk’ (1 out of a 1-5 scale) for severe weather.
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION.png
Once this front pushes through, you’ll notice a bit of relief from the middle 90s back into the lower 90s. Not a cool down by any means, but definitely more bearable. By Sunday and Monday, daytime highs will be back into the upper 80s, which is right around our seasonal average for this time in early July! Score.
Another bright side of the forecast? After today the severe weather threat diminishes. This does not mean we will dodge showers and storms, though. In fact, a few showers and storms are expected to pop up during the afternoon on Saturday but the better chance holds off until Sunday. Check out your 7-Day.
WSMV 7 Day AM
 
 I’ll have updates on the storms plus your full weekend forecast on Channel 4 at noon today!
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