We’ve had numerous severe thunderstorm warnings in eastern Middle Tennessee this afternoon, and more severe weather is possible this evening. As I post this at 5:30, we have one batch of severe storms still making its way through the eastern half of the Midstate with a damaging wind and hail threat:
Those storms produced large hail and strong wind reports, and even a funnel cloud over southeastern Overton county late this afternoon:
Once those storms move out, it doesn’t mean we’re done for the evening — more storms are lining up to our west, and they are heading in our direction:
It’s possible the storms will diminish in intensity before they reach us this evening, but we’re not counting on it. One version of Futurecast takes that activity to our west and bends it farther to the south:
Based on the current radar trends, I have a hard time buying into that. A different version of Futurecast (one of the HRRR model runs) maintains the storm strength, and moves those storms to the I-65 corridor well after sunset:
Even that model has been waffling about whether the storms will make it here, so the storm chance is far from etched in stone — that’s why I’m keeping the evening chance at 70%, rather than 100%. Plan on staying weather-aware throughout the evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has included all of the Midstate in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe weather, a sign that they also anticipate the storms holding together.
The damaging wind and large hail threats will be the greatest potential hazards, but flash flooding is also a concern, especially in northern Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for those locations, in effect until midnight:
Before the storms arrive, plenty of heat and humidity will remain in place across the Midstate. Temperatures today reached the mid 90s, and heat index was between 105 and 110. The evening will bring us a gradual cooldown, but you’ll still need to stay hydrated and take the usual common-sense hot weather precautions.
The weekend will bring us another chance of scattered storms Saturday, mostly along and south of I-40 in the afternoon:
A better chance of more widespread storms is still in the forecast Sunday, but the forecast models have been all over the place with that system.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Sunday because of the additional rainfall, but the humidity will still remain oppressive through the entire seven day forecast. The storm chances are slightly lower next week, but that’s due to our uncertainty regarding the specific day-to-day pattern, not because of any noticeable drop in atmospheric moisture.
A little later than usual, thanks to my afternoon/evening-shift duties today (not to mention the severe weather!), but better late than never…
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