July 5: More Scattered Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

The off-and-on storms we saw on Independence Day are lingering into the first couple of days of the abbreviated work week — we had plenty of rain to wet down the morning commute in Nashville, with more scattered storms expected today and tomorrow.  The best storm chances will take a little break the rest of the morning, but more scattered storms will fire up around midday and move west-to-east throughout the afternoon.  Hour-by-hour, rain chances look like this:
PAUL DAYPART POPS
Futurecast (the RPM model, which performed quite well yesterday and this morning) shows the midday and afternoon storms, followed by another break this evening:
RPM 10A TUE RPM 12P TUE RPM 2P TUE RPM 4P TUE RPM 6P TUE
Another model, the HRRR, is in general agreement with that scenario.  (We always look for model consensus — when the computers agree, it’s a sign they have a better handle on the situation.)
hrrr_2016070508_ref_nashville

It will be warm and very muggy in between the storms, with highs in the mid to upper 80s:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH
Dew points will hold steady in the low to mid 70s, which is nearly-dreadful territory on the Muggy Meter:
PAUL RPM 4KM DEW POINT MuggyMeter

We could see some spotty showers to start the day Wednesday, but the better chance of storms will move in from the west Wednesday afternoon…
RPM 12P WED RPM 2P WED RPM 4P WED RPM 6P WED
…with another batch of storms possible in the late evening and early overnight:
RPM 9P WED RPM 11P WED RPM 1A THU
Some of Wednesday’s storms could be strong to even severe — the Storm Prediction Center has only outlined the northern part of the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe weather…
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
…but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Marginal Risk area is expanded and a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) is introduced in subsequent outlooks.  The SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model (think of it as a superblend of several forecast models) shows a 30-50% chance of severe weather ingredients coming together over the Midstate on Wednesday:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f045

Once Wednesday night’s storms move through, our rain chances will go down…but our temperatures will go up.  Air temperatures will reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday, with enough humidity to push the heat index up to the 101-104 range.  With that kind of heat and humdity, spotty storms are always a possibility, so I’ve left our rain chances in the 30% range for both days:
WSMV 7 Day AM
Looks like we’ll dip back into the unsettled weather pattern this weekend, especially late Sunday and Sunday night.  But this far in advance, it’s hard to be confident in the specific timing — a lot can change between now and then, and we’ll keep you posted!

 

LINKS

Some leftover Independence Day nerdery, and plenty of weather and space stuff too!

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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