The off-and-on storms we saw on Independence Day are lingering into the first couple of days of the abbreviated work week — we had plenty of rain to wet down the morning commute in Nashville, with more scattered storms expected today and tomorrow. The best storm chances will take a little break the rest of the morning, but more scattered storms will fire up around midday and move west-to-east throughout the afternoon. Hour-by-hour, rain chances look like this:
Futurecast (the RPM model, which performed quite well yesterday and this morning) shows the midday and afternoon storms, followed by another break this evening:
Another model, the HRRR, is in general agreement with that scenario. (We always look for model consensus — when the computers agree, it’s a sign they have a better handle on the situation.)
We could see some spotty showers to start the day Wednesday, but the better chance of storms will move in from the west Wednesday afternoon…
…with another batch of storms possible in the late evening and early overnight:
Some of Wednesday’s storms could be strong to even severe — the Storm Prediction Center has only outlined the northern part of the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe weather…
…but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Marginal Risk area is expanded and a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) is introduced in subsequent outlooks. The SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model (think of it as a superblend of several forecast models) shows a 30-50% chance of severe weather ingredients coming together over the Midstate on Wednesday:
Once Wednesday night’s storms move through, our rain chances will go down…but our temperatures will go up. Air temperatures will reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday, with enough humidity to push the heat index up to the 101-104 range. With that kind of heat and humdity, spotty storms are always a possibility, so I’ve left our rain chances in the 30% range for both days:
Looks like we’ll dip back into the unsettled weather pattern this weekend, especially late Sunday and Sunday night. But this far in advance, it’s hard to be confident in the specific timing — a lot can change between now and then, and we’ll keep you posted!
Some leftover Independence Day nerdery, and plenty of weather and space stuff too!
- A little historical weather to wrap up the 4th of July weekend: it stormed as the second Continental Congress debated the Declaration of Independence in Philadelphia, but the weather on July 4, 1776 was quite nice!
- It was a slow start to this year’s tropical storm season in the Pacific Ocean, but things are finally becoming more active.
- Why is it more dangerous to leave kids and pets in cars during hot weather, as opposed to very cold weather?
- Some before-and-after pictures that really put the West Virginia floods in perspective.
- Watch a 5-year-old “scientist in training” teach you about tornadoes in pretty much the cutest way possible. (Until someone figures out how to make a golden retriever puppy do it.)
- NASA’s Juno probe officially entered orbit around Jupiter last night. (The official “science gathering” phase of the mission doesn’t start until October.)
- More about “what’s next” for Juno from astronomer Phil Plait.
- The Juno mission will eventually end with a death plunge into the giant planet itself. Why end the mission that way?
- Geographic features on smaller bodies in the solar system (smaller planets like Mars, moons of other planets, dwarf planets and asteroids) are much bigger than anything on Earth — how does that work?
- Stem cell-stimulating fillings could be the end of root canals.
- I couldn’t be in more agreement with this article: “Stop telling kids you’re bad at math. You’re spreading math anxiety ‘like a virus.'”
- Speaking of math…John Adams and Thomas Jefferson both died on July 4, 1826 — what are the odds of that?
- Finally, a little pyrotechnic science: the chemistry that puts the color in fireworks.