Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, so a 4WARN Weather Alert has been issued for Middle Tennessee. As you well know, a hot and humid airmass is in place, almost of the ingredients for severe weather are also in the equation; now all that is needed is a little lift in the atmosphere. Another disturbance upstream may slide down late tomorrow and provide that lift to get those thunderstorms going.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed northern Middle Tennessee in a “slight risk” zone for severe storms. That is a 2 on a 1-5 scale. The rest of the mid-state is in a “marginal” risk zone. That is a 1 on a 1-5 scale.
The greatest risk tomorrow will be from damaging wind; that’s wind 60 mph or greater. I think we will also see some heavy downpours . This may trigger some flash flooding in some spots that are already saturated, especially along the Tennessee/Kentucky line. In addition, frequent lightning will be threat. So far this year there have been 9 lightning deaths in the United States. So the best advice is when you hear thunder go indoors.
The timing on tomorrow’s storms will generally be from 2pm to 8pm.
Looking ahead…Thursday and Friday a ridge of high pressure starts to build in that will keep things a little drier, however afternoon thunderstorm will be possible. Highs will soar to the mid to upper 90s. The heat index will be near 100 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday, another front drops south, it will bring again a chance of showers and thunderstorms. It doesn’t look severe at this time.
posted 9:05 pm